Risk of second recession rising in developed economies

By REUTERS
September 14, 2011 17:03

LONDON - The developed world's economies have become ensnared in a growth slowdown that threatens to turn into recession, at a time when room for maneuver with bold policy responses has narrowed significantly, Reuters polls showed.

Surveys of more than 250 economists in North America, across Europe and Japan portend steadily increasing chances that central bankers will need to fire any weapons they may have left to stave off disaster.

The median probability of a second recession in the United States, euro zone and Britain has climbed to roughly one in three, which is dangerously close to where such predictions have been correct in the past.

Consensus forecasts for recessions rarely get to 50 percent before history proves economies were already in one.


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