The TA-25 index has spent this past week consolidating around record levels, which gives off very positive signals for the near future.
A period of consolidation after a strong rally, such as has been seen with the TA-25 during April, indicates that there is not sufficient selling activity to send the index into decline. Instead, for every seller there have been buyers at the same price, suggesting that many investors believe the market is not overvalued, at present.
Since the recent rally, which was predicted in this column on April 4, the market recorded its all-time highest level of 860 on Tuesday. That peak was followed by fairly flat sessions Wednesday and Thursday (the aforementioned consolidation period) and the outlook is that further increases are on the cards.
"Technically speaking the index looks good" commented Oli Greenspan, trader at Hamilton Court Capital in London, pointing out the current steady rate of appreciation as a reassuring factor.
"The market has really performed well since the start of March, and we should see a continuation from here."
The only cautionary note, as indicated by the accompanying chart, is that if the market were to suffer a rough start to next week, nervousness could come into play and see the market drift back to the 850 level (where the charts show a strong support level) as investors lock in their gains from the latest surge. However, if things continue in the same vein as this week, the market appears set to break new ground in the short-term.
Technical analysis is the study of trading based on previous performance, focusing exclusively on price movements rather than the fundamentals of the index/currency involved.