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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 14 - 18

Published 07/13/2014, 05:45 AM
Updated 07/13/2014, 05:45 AM
Dollar index edges higher on Friday

Investing.com - The dollar was steady against the euro and the yen on Friday as concerns over the financial health of Portugal’s largest lender eased, dampening safe haven demand.

EUR/USD was at 1.3601 late Friday, almost unchanged for the day, while USD/JPY settled at 101.34, holding above Thursday’s almost two-month lows of 101.05.

Concerns over the fiscal stability of Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo fuelled a sharp selloff in markets on Thursday, amid fears over the risk of contagion. Concerns eased after Portugal’s central bank said Friday it was satisfied that the lender is able to fulfill its capital requirements.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.23 late Friday, up 0.09%.

The dollar came under pressure earlier in the week, after Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed that officials agreed to end the bank’s asset purchase program in October, but revealed little new information on when rates could start to increase.

Elsewhere Friday, the Canadian dollar fell to two-week lows against the U.S. dollar after data showed that Canada’s economy unexpectedly shed jobs in June. The weak data underlined expectations that the Bank of Canada will stick to its dovish stance on interest rates for longer.

USD/CAD was up 0.77% to 1.0731 late Friday after Statistics Canada said the economy lost 9,400 jobs last month, compared to expectations for jobs growth of 20,000. The Canadian unemployment rate ticked up to 7.1% from 7.0% in May, against expectations of an unchanged reading.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching testimony on monetary policy by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi. Monetary policy announcements by the BoC and the Bank of Japan will also be in focus, while China is to release data on economic growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 14

The euro zone is to release data on industrial production.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to testify on monetary policy to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. His comments will be closely watched.

Tuesday, July 15

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales, as well as a report on consumer price inflation.

Switzerland is to release data on producer price inflation.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to testify on the bank’s financial stability report to parliament’s Treasury committee.

The U.S. is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The U.S. is also to release data on import prices, business inventories and manufacturing activity in the Empire state.

Wednesday, July 16

New Zealand is to release data on consumer inflation.

China is to publish data on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health. The country is also to publish reports on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The U.K. is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The bank will hold a press conference following the announcement. Canada is also to release data on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to release reports on producer price inflation and industrial production. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Janet Yellen Carney is to testify on monetary policy to the House financial committee.

Thursday, July 17

Australia is to release private sector data on leading economic indicators and business confidence.

The euro zone is to release data on consumer prices.

Canada is to produce data foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. to publish reports on initial jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Friday, July 18

The BoJ is to publish monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Canada is to release data on consumer process and wholesale sales.

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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