A debate is raging within the IDF regarding the so-called inflection point when
it will need to begin establishing new formations and procuring new platforms to
counter a future threat from Egypt.
The current assessment within the IDF
is that Egypt will, for the coming years, retain the peace treaty with Israel
due to its need for continued financial and military assistance from the United
States.
Reuters/Amr Dalsh
The birth of the Arab Spring predates 2011, but the protest movements in the Arab world took form in
Libya,
Syria, Egypt,
Tunisia and
Yemen in January.
In the months that followed, Arab protesters mobilized in a way unheard of for decades. One by one, regimes fell across North Africa, and the desire for reform rocked the region from Morocco to the quiet island sheikdom of
Bahrain.
The global response varied greatly from country to country. In the case of Libya,
NATO backed the rebellion to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi. In Bahrain, Western powers remained more distant as Saudi troops quelled minority protests there.
The end of 2011 saw some Arab countries engaging in the first free elections since the birth of their respective nations.
Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl
On November 8, 2011 the International Atomic Energy Agency
released an incriminating report on Iran's nuclear program which confirmed fears that Tehran had never given up its nuclear plans.
That evidence, coupled with the rogue nation's seeming lack of interest in revealing their nuclear ambitions, flagged the issue for nations deciding whether the Islamic Republic will bow before economic pressure, or only succumb when it is forced to.
Three
mysterious explosions occurred in separate cities in Iran over the last number of months, and earlier this year Iran revealed that a Stuxnet-like virus had
infected Iran's computer systems.
Reuters/Mike Segar
On June 26, 2011, the PLO officially announced its plan to submit a request for full membership of the United Nations.
Israel understood the move as a way for the Palestinian Authority to unilaterally declare statehood negating peace talks. The PA said they did not want to isolate Israel, but rather that they were laying a framework with which to restart the peace process. In the run-up to his UN speech, Abbas sought support from the UN's 193 members.
By the end of 2011, and after Abbas
addressed the UN General Assembly September 29, the statehood bid failed due to a looming United States veto. While the chances of its success seem unlikely at the UN Security Council, Abbas's popularity shot up in the Palestinian territories and the PLO raised its flag at the
UNESCO headquarters in Paris.
Reuters/Zoubeir Souissi
Middle Eastern leaders did not have a great year. One, however, towered above the rest. That premier was Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Erdogan may have been the only Middle Eastern leader to successfully ride the wave of the Arab Spring unrest, pushing his form of Islamic democracy to burgeoning democracies in the region.
His popularity among Middle Easterners shot up amid an
ongoing row with Israel over the deaths of nine Turkish activists at the hands of IDF soldiers in May, 2010. The Turkish prime minister was the first to
tour countries affected by the Arab Spring.
Reuters/Ali Hashisho
On June 30, 2011, four
indictments were submitted to Lebanese authorities by the Special Tribunal in Lebanon over the assassination of prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005.
While the names of those indicted have not been officially released, secondary sources claimed the warrants named Hezbollah members. Hezbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
summarily rejected the findings, and questioned the legitimacy of the UN-based tribunal.
The four remain at large, but the tribunal allows for trials in absentia. Further evidence could lead to more indictments and, for now, the case behind the assassination of a leader held in high esteem by many Lebanese remains unsolved.
Thinkstock/Imagebank
Click here to vote for the top Middle East story of 2011
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Nevertheless, there is concern within the military over two
different scenarios involving the deployment of Egyptian military forces into
the Sinai Peninsula, which is supposed to be demilitarized under the 1979 peace
treaty.
The first scenario involves an Egyptian decision to deploy troops
there for training. The second scenario sees the movement of an Egyptian
division into the peninsula, on the sidelines of a future Israeli war with
Hezbollah or Syria, as a demonstration of unity with the Arab
countries.
“In both cases, Israel will be in a quandary regarding what to
do,” a senior defense official explained recently. “On the one hand, no
Israeli prime minister will go to war with Egypt over such violations but on the
other hand, if we don’t respond then we are turning a blind eye to the
violation.”
As a result, the IDF Planning Directorate has recommended
that a Muslim Brotherhood victory in the ongoing Egyptian elections serve as the
cutoff line for when the military should begin establishing long-lead items –
such as new divisions and combat squadrons.
“These are formations that
take a number of years to create, and that is why we will need to begin working
on them sooner rather than later,” a senior IDF officer
explained.
Shortly after taking up his post in February, Chief of Staff
Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz decided to take a cautious approach visa- vis Egypt and not recommend the implementation of
an immediate procurement plan aimed at establishing new units.
This was
done with the understanding that even if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over in
upcoming elections, it will still take some time before Egypt threatens Israel
again as it did in the days leading up to the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
For
that reason, the past year has been devoted mostly to learning about Egypt,
dusting off old maps and preparing conceptually for the future.
Now,
however, with a Muslim Brotherhood victory appearing to be quite clear, one
possibility under growing consideration is to reestablish units that the IDF
dismantled seven years ago.
The main obstacle to all of these plans is
the shortage of funds.
While Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has
apparently decided not to cut the defense budget for the coming year, the
decision to establish new formations would require a major financial investment,
which the country does not appear to be prepared to make.
The IDF’s NIS
42 billion budget – under which the IDF formulated its new multi-year plan
called Halamish – does not include preparations for a confrontation with Egypt,
which would require the country to invest billions of additional shekels.