Kadima would fall from its current 28 seats in the Knesset to only 10 if journalist Yair Lapid entered politics and formed a new party, a Shvakim Panorama poll broadcast on Israel Radio on Thursday found.
The poll predicted that Lapid’s party would win 15 seats, the same number his late father, former justice minister Yosef “Tommy” Lapid, won at the helm of Shinui in 2003.
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Another potential new party led by former Shas leader Arye Deri would win seven mandates according to the poll, leaving Shas with only five, down from its current 11.
Likud would win 24 seats, Labor 15, Israel Beiteinu 14, United Torah Judaism six, Meretz five, Habayit Hayehudi and the National Union four each, and Arab parties 11. Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Independence Party would not cross the 2% electoral threshold.
When asked about the Kadima leadership race, 25.5 percent of respondents said they preferred incumbent Tzipi Livni, MK Shaul Mofaz was close behind with 24.8%, MK Avi Dichter was at 7.4%, and MK Meir Sheetrit 5.5%.
Livni’s numbers were significantly better than Mofaz’s among Kadima voters, who preferred her 46% to 29%. Labor and Likud voters both preferred Mofaz.
When asked whether they had a favorable view of Livni, 70% said no and 24% said yes. Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich, by contrast, was liked by 50% of respondents.
Regarding whether the date of the next general election should be advanced, 48% said no, 30% said yes, and 27% said they had no opinion.