Away from the cameras, pomp and fanfare surrounding US President Barack Obama’s
historic visit to Israel, urgent security issues will dominate discussions
between him and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, as well as their respective
security advisers. Foremost among those issues will be the Iranian
nuclear program.
It seems hardly a coincidence that Obama timed his visit
for the start of spring. Netanyahu warned last year at the United Nations that
by the spring or summer of 2013, Tehran would have acquired enough enriched
uranium to build its first nuclear weapon.
During his September address
to the General Assembly, Netanyahu set back the deadline on when Iran would
cross an Israeli red line, but now, with Iran in possession of just under 170
kilograms of uranium enriched to 20 percent (according to the IAEA), time may
once again be of the essence.
Tehran would only need another 60 kg. to 90
kg. of medium-enriched uranium, which it could then quickly enrich further, to
produce weapons-grade material, if the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gives the order.
The fact that new-generation
centrifuges, which enrich uranium three to five times faster than the older
centrifuges, have been installed at the Natanz site cannot be ignored,
either.
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Four rounds of talks between the P5+1 nations and Iran have ended
in failure, and allowed the Iranians to play for time. Worse yet, during the
last round of talks, in Kazakhstan last month, the international community dropped two key demands: that Iran dismantle
its subterranean enrichment facility at Fordow, and that it send abroad its 6.5
tons of low-enriched uranium.
Economic and oil sanctions are severely
hurting the Iranian economy, but so far, they have failed to convince Iran to
freeze its nuclear program.
Additionally Iran has denied the IAEA any
access to its secret military site in Parchin, where the IAEA suspects that a
nuclear trigger is being developed.
Has Obama arrived in Israel to
dissuade Netanyahu from unilaterally striking Iran’s nuclear sites? Quite
possibly. That goal may only be achievable, however, if Obama privately tells
Netanyahu what America’s red line on Iran is.
If the red line is
significantly behind Israel’s, Netanyahu may conclude that he cannot betray the
ethos at the heart of the country’s defense doctrine, which holds that the
Jewish people’s fate cannot ever again depend on other powers – even the most
important of allies.
If, however, Obama’s red line is close to Israel’s,
Netanyahu may choose to stand down and let America complete its experiment to
see if sanctions might change the minds of Iran’s rulers, before the US resorts
to military action.
Hence, the exchanges Obama and Netanyahu hold during
this visit may be vital in deciding whether Israel goes it alone, or hands the
keys over to the US.
The escalating situation in Syria will furnish
another urgent topic for discussion. In recent days, unconfirmed reports
surfaced of a chemical weapon attack near Aleppo, Syrian jets bombed rebel
positions in Lebanon for the first time since the civil war broke out, and UN
peacekeepers were kidnapped (and later released) by radical Syrian rebels who
have taken control of the area near the border with Israel.
Syria has
become a proxy battleground between Shi’ite Iran and its Sunni rivals. Iran is
keeping the Assad regime alive through weapon and money transfers, and sending
thousands of Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah fighters over the border to fight the
rebels, while the Sunni Gulf states are financing and arming the rebels. This
could destabilize Lebanon and its delicate sectarian balance.
In light of
the developing tinderbox, Israel will be looking to the US for support and
coordination in containing the Syrian chaos. Containment contingencies, such as
responding to chemical weapons attacks, or attempts to send advanced arms to
Hezbollah, will form a crucial aspect of talks between Obama and Netanyahu,
though much groundwork has been laid on this already.
The two leaders can
be expected also to discuss ways of kick-starting the peace process between
Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and how to strengthen Fatah in Ramallah at
the expense of Hamas in Gaza.