With lists of those running for the 19th Knesset almost finalized, one-third of
current MKs are unlikely to be sworn in again in February. Between 40 and
47 current MKs will not be members of the next Knesset.
Kadima holds the
record for most MKs unlikely to remain in the Knesset, with a high estimate of
24 out of its 28 MKs. A low estimate would be 19, if the party passes the
election threshold and The Tzipi Livni Party gets 10 seats – two scenarios not
reflected in most poll results.
Second is Likud, with eight MKs who will
not return, followed by five from Yisrael Beytenu and five more from
Independence, which will not run in the next Knesset.
In addition, two
out of three Habayit Hayehudi MKs are no longer in the running, while National
Union chairman Ya’acov Katz dropped out of the race. According to most polls,
Strong Israel will not pass the election threshold, adding two more MKs to the
count.
One Labor MK, Daniel Ben-Simon, is ranked 20th on the party list,
which is borderline realistic for the next Knesset, while Yoram Marciano, who is
expected to replace Amir Peretz this week, is not running.
Of the MKs who
will not be in the next Knesset, 17 dropped out of the race since the election
was announced in October, including seven from Kadima, two in Yisrael Beytenu,
two in Habayit Hayehudi, one in National Union and all of
Independence.
Fifteen current MKs ran or are running in the election in a
different party than the one in which they served in the 18th Knesset. Two
Kadima MKs – Nino Abesadze and Nachman Shai – moved to Labor, while seven more
went to The Tzipi Livni Party. Three more – Home Front Defense Minister Avi
Dichter, Arieh Bibi and Yulia Shamolov Berkovich – ran in the Likud primary, but
did not get realistic spots on the list.
Shamolov Berkovich now leads the
Calcala Party, which is unlikely to get into the next Knesset.
In
addition, former Kadima MK Tzachi Hanegbi is in a realistic spot on the Likud
list, as is Peretz, who resigned from Labor on Thursday, on The Tzipi Livni
Party list.
The two Strong Israel MKs, Arieh Eldad and Michael Ben-Ari,
broke off from National Union, while MK Haim Amsalem left Shas to form his own
Am Shalem party.
The deadline to submit candidacy in the upcoming
election was Thursday at 10 p.m., and 34 parties submitted lists to the Central
Election Committee. However, the parties running on January 22 will be finalized
on December 23, when the committee publicizes its decisions as to whether any
lists or candidates are disqualified for technical or legal reasons.
The
committee will review any complaints it received, such as the many requests by
right-wing MKs to disqualify Arab parties Balad and United Arab List- Ta’al on
the grounds that they oppose Israel as the state of the Jewish people or support
a foreign entity or terrorist group taking up arms against Israel.
In
addition, it must examine whether the registration process was completed
properly by all 34 parties, and that they fill the minimum conditions to
participate in the election.
Comparing the realistic candidates in six
lists likely to get the most seats in the next Knesset – Likud Beytenu (40),
Labor (20), Habayit Hayehudi (15), The Tzipi Livni Party (10), Shas (15) and
Yesh Atid (10) – reveals interesting statistics on ages, number of women,
religious status and more on possible MKs and parties in the next
Knesset.
Habayit Hayehudi has the youngest list, with an average age of
48; followed by Yesh Atid and the Likud, which are tied at 51; then Labor and
Shas, which are tied at 52; and The Tzipi Livni Party, with an average age of
53. Labor has both the youngest and the oldest candidate: Stav Shafir, who is
27, and MK Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who is 76.
Shas has the most religious
list, with only religious candidates, while 14 out of 15 Habayit Hayehudi
candidates counted identify themselves as religious.
Likud has six
realistic religious candidates. Yesh Atid has two religious people in its top
10, Livni has one and Labor has none.
Yesh Atid has the highest
percentage of women, with four females in its top 10, followed by Labor and The
Tzipi Livni Party at 30 percent. The Likud and Habayit Hayehudi follow with 20%
and 25%, respectively. Shas is at the bottom of the list with no
women.
Yesh Atid also has the most educated list. Although party
leader Yair Lapid did not graduate high school, everyone else has a university
degree. The Likud and The Tzipi Livni Party are tied with Yesh Atid at
90%. In Labor, 80% of candidates are academics, followed by Habayit
Hayehudi with 67% and Shas in last place at 33%.