Security & Defense: 'We're in the midst of preparing the home front for war'

Deputy Defense Minister: While Iran can't wipe Israel off the map, it could wreak severe havoc.

By YAAKOV KATZ
vilnai 298 aj (photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski [file])
vilnai 298 aj
(photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski [file])
According to Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai, the country is in one of the most complicated and dangerous periods of its history. And though he does not believe that Israel can be "wiped off the map," in spite of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's threats, he is increasingly concerned about the current political instability here, which he blames for delays in projects he deems essential, such as the revamping of the Home Front. This week, as Israel marked the 35th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War - reviewing lessons learned from it - Vilnai gave The Jerusalem Post a lengthy interview, during which he covered a wide range of topics, from Labor's coalition talks with Kadima, to how Hizbullah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is a target, to the danger of holding public demonstrations calling for the release of Gilad Schalit. The former deputy chief of General Staff and deputy commander of the elite commando unit, Sayeret Matkal, says that the IDF is at a most critical juncture. It is the only military in the world, he explains, that needs to be ready at any given moment to fight a guerrilla war in Lebanon, a terror war in the West Bank and a conventional war with Syria, and confront a possible existential threat from Iran. Since taking up his post just over a year ago, Vilnai, 64, has been immersed in establishing the National Emergency Administration (NEA), which he founded to coordinate among all of the various emergency services, in the event of a missile onslaught. This is necessary, he says, because one of the problems encountered during the Second Lebanon War was that the cabinet had to meet several times to discuss how to get food to shelters in the North. But "the cabinet needs to run the war." How do you view Israel's current strategic position in the Middle East? There are existential threats today coming from farther away. The additional complication when dealing with Islamic radical terror is that the war is not just against terrorists, but against a population. In Gaza, you can hit Hamas, but it does not hurt Hamas, since the people there support Hamas. This is the same in Lebanon, where the civilian population supports Hizbullah. This makes the conflict much more complicated. As a result, what is needed is a combined military-diplomatic solution, as well as alliances with other countries. Is there still a conventional threat? It exists, and we need to prepare for it, so we can retain capabilities required for war with Syria, like on Yom Kippur exactly 35 years ago. We also need to retain the ability to fight Hizbullah and Iran over the horizon. Today, we need to know how to do different things [simultaneously], and this is difficult challenge. I can't remember such a complicated period in my 40 years in the defense establishment. What poses the greatest threat? The state of Israel. Establishing a new government is necessary for stability. The fact that the government changes every two years weakens us. A ministry that starts everything from scratch every two years cannot get anything done. Are there ongoing processes in the Defense Ministry that will be harmed in the event that general elections are held now? The change in regime harms and weakens us, and I believe it is of the utmost importance to continue with the same government today. We are in the midst of preparing the home front for war and this is something that the government has spoken about for decades, but never dealt with or regulated properly. If we change the leadership of the Defense Ministry, I don't know what will happen. If we don't continue what we have been doing here for another two years, it will all go to waste. What, for example? The NEA and the annual home front exercises we started. I fear that if we aren't here, everything will go back to the way it was in the beginning. We need continuity. What is the concept behind the NEA? The responsibility for the home front has always been in the hands of the municipalities or the local and regional councils, but for years they shirked this responsibility. The concept behind the NEA is for the government offices and services to assist them. The IDF, Israel Police, Fire and Rescue Service, Magen David Adom, the Interior, Welfare and Health ministries will all work for the mayors and regional council heads to make sure that life continues, even during wartime. The cabinet does not need to meet to discuss food distribution to bomb shelters. A mayor with the right assistance can do this on his or her own. What will the next war look like? The home front will be the main front of the war, whether it is missiles from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran. Can Israel live with a nuclear Iran? Israel has the strong advantage of being a resilient nation which has been through wars - and an intifada with buses blowing up. We know how to soldier on like no other country in the world. I don't believe that Israel can just disappear from the map. There were times like that in the 1950s, when we were a young and small nation. I don't accept the definition of Iran as an existential threat in the sense that Israel will disappear. I do, however, believe that we can get hit and be weakened. They can try to hit us hard, and the IDF is the only military in the world that cannot afford to lose even a single war, since doing so would be a dramatic change in the state of Israel. But the Iranian threat is not just our problem, but that of the entire free world. I was in Germany for a meeting last week and told people there that Iran should be their main focus. We need an economic siege on Iran. There are not only military solutions to threats. Is there time for sanctions to work? Time is against us, but I have no doubt that strong and serious sanctions could work. If the entire free world decides to stop the economic flow to Iran, it will have the desired effect. Iran is a country that is connected to the world, not like Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Nevertheless, can Israel live alongside a nuclear Iran? As a rule, we can't allow Iran to obtain this capability. Currently, we need to invest all our efforts in preventing it from achieving that capability. We are doing this and the US is doing this, but the entire world is not with us. When you say we can't allow Iran to achieve nuclear capability, is military force one option for preventing it? Everything needs to be seriously deliberated. I am not in favor of making warlike declarations, but I think that everything needs to be considered, so we can determine the right course of action. Military force has always been a continuation of diplomacy by other means. This was said by [Prussian military theorist Carl von] Clausewitz. Why does the world not join the economic campaign against Iran? Everyone thinks the threat is not against them. They also think in the short term, and look at the profits they are making from deals with Iran, and they think what is happening there will not affect them. How much time is there? I believe that 2009 and 2010 will be the critical years. There may be more time, but I think there is less. Two years is a short time for what we are dealing with. What is going on with the gas masks? There is a budget disagreement with the Treasury. Most of the masks have already been refurbished, and there is a plan for a civilian company to return them to people at home. However, we will not distribute to everyone at once. We will start with threatened areas - like the North and the center - and then move to other parts of the country. We had hoped to start in January, but did not receive the necessary budget. We went to the cabinet, and are waiting for the money. Hopefully, we will start to distribute in 2009. Do we really need gas masks? Yes. We need a protective room and a mask. This issue was studied by the NEA, and it was decided that this is the right protective envelope. We need them against capabilities that are in Syrian and Iranian hands. It is fairly easy to obtain this type of non-conventional capability, and the moment they know we have a protective envelope, they will think twice before using this capability. This serves as a deterrent against them. Can there really be peace with Syria? We need to break the axis of evil. It can be broken militarily, but the talks with Syria are meant to do this as well. Syria needs to cut off its ties with Iran. This is our condition, and this is the most important element. But it is not something that will happen immediately. We saw other Syrian intentions with the nuclear facility that the air force destroyed last September. I don't know what type of facility you are taking about, but that is why I said we need both elements - military and diplomatic. It has been two years since the war in Lebanon, and Hizbullah is still building up weapons. Is there a possibility of another war? They are scared of a war, and while they pretend to be heroic, Nasrallah has for the past two years been holed up inside a bunker. Why? Is he a target? Of course he is. He is an enemy of Israel, and he sees what happens to Israel's enemies. Hizbullah does not want another war. It doesn't want a repeat of the destruction we caused in the Dahiya neighborhood in Beirut. Hizbullah understands it cannot survive another war and grasps what our power is. Hamas, too, is amassing weapons. What is happening with the Gaza cease-fire? They are building up all the time. The question we need to ask is what the significance of the cease-fire is where the smuggling is concerned. The answer is that they are smuggling the same amount today as they were before the cease-fire. The Egyptians are slowly improving their capabilities, and recently arrested Beduin in the Sinai who are connected to the tunnel industry. The Egyptians are an integral part of the Middle East, and peace with it has immense strategic importance for Israel. We would never have had contact with Hamas without the Egyptians. That is why I thought there was no reason for the cease-fire not to succeed. There were many on the Palestinian side who wanted to end it, but they understand the importance, and if there is not a breakdown, there is no reason not to keep it going. Do they have weaponry that they did not have before? There is no doubt that they have extended their rocket range. If, before, they could fire a rocket 10 km., they can now reach 20 km. But they cannot defeat us with missiles. We will not let them expand their military capability, and we may need to use military force to stop this.