'Factor' panelists want what Republicans want, sort of

The panel still wants Giuliani more than any other candidate, but judging by the polls, he isn’t coming back. Next in line for the panel are Romney, Pawlenty and Huckabee.

January 3, 2011 18:51
2 minute read.
Mike Huckabee.

huckabee_311. (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem)

Comparing what Israelis want to what Americans want is always interesting, and The Israel Factor survey now provides us with an opportunity to compare the Republican field of 2012 candidates. Last week, a couple of polls had ranked the Republican prospective contenders for the presidency. Take, for example, the Clarus Reaserch Group poll.

Here’s a table comparing the leading candidates in this poll - namely, the candidates with the most support among Republican voters - with the numbers our Israel Factor panel ranked the same candidates (when we asked the panel to rank from 1, bad for Israel, to 10,good for Israel):

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Candidate                 Israel Factor     Clarus poll
Mitt Romney              6                        19%
Mike Huckabee        5.75                   18%
Sara Palin                 3.87                    17%
Newt Gingrich           5.71                    10%
Chris Christie            4.6                      9%
Ron Paul                    3.86                    4%
Bobby Jindal             4.5                      4%
Tim Pawlenty             5.8                      3%
Haley Barbour           3.75                    2%
John Thune                4.8                      2%
Mitch Daniels             4                         2%

A couple of notes:

1. We didn’t yet rank Marco Rubio in the Factor survey, but he gets 5% at the poll of Republicans. He will be added next time (and others, like Mike Bloomberg, will be eliminated).

2. Mitt Romney is the candidate both Republicans and our panel want more than all others. As I pointed out in earlier post, this is one sign of the panel’s centrist streak.

3. As more than one poll had demonstrated in recent days, Sarah Palin, while visibly the most attention-grabbing candidate in the field, will have hard time winning general election against Obama. This is also true when Israel Factor numbers are considered. Obama gets a 5 to Palin’s 3.87 (all the numbers are here).

4. On the other hand, Obama also leads Romney in most polls of American voters, as you can see in this table:

In The Israel Factor survey, Obama trails Romney, Huckabee and Gingrich.

5. This means that the panel, as centrist as it might be when it comes to Israeli preferences, still tilts Republican. It is not because more panelists prefer a Republican President; it is because many of them think Obama’s policies thus far do not give a reason to want him back for four more years.

6. The panel still wants Rudi Giuliani more than any other candidate. Tough luck. Judging by the polls, he isn’t coming back. Next in line for the panel are Romney, Pawlenty and Huckabee. That’s not bad, considering what Republican voters want.

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