With US President Barack Obama scheduled to make his much-anticipated maiden
visit to Israel as president in two weeks, there is much speculation about his
intent.
And much of that speculation reflects more the hopes and fears of
those speculating than any real, inside information about what the president
truly has in mind.
Some say that Obama is coming with an
Israeli-Palestinian peace plan that he will drop on Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu, and others that he is not coming with a full-blown plan, but rather
with demands of a timetable for an Israeli withdrawal from the West
Bank.
Some say he is coming to apply pressure on Netanyahu not to take
precipitous action against Iran, others say while here he will announce the
freeing of Jonathan Pollard.
But it is all just that –
speculation.
Nevertheless, at AIPAC’s annual policy conference in
Washington on Monday, the more than 12,000 attendees heard three speeches – by
Netanyahu (taped), Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and US Vice President Joe Biden
– that when looked at carefully could give a hint as to what direction the Obama
trip was headed.
This visit, it emerges from the speeches, will be long
on appreciation – Israel for the US’s support, the US for Israel’s precarious
security situation – and short on public disagreements.
Not that the
disagreements will not be there – over the settlements, over how much time to
give Iran – but they are unlikely to burst out into the open. Obama is not
traveling to Israel to publicly bicker with Netanyahu.
“While we may not
always agree on tactics – and I’ve been around a long time; I’ve been there for
a lot of prime ministers – we’ve always disagreed on tactic,” Biden
said. “We’ve always disagreed at some point or another on
tactic. But, ladies and gentlemen, we have never disagreed on the
strategic imperative that Israel must be able to protect its own, must be able
to do it on its own, and we must always stand with Israel to be sure that can
happen. And we will.”
Biden was trotted out to AIPAC as an opening act
for Obama’s visit. And, just as at every rock concert the type of music played
by the warm-up band is not going to be fundamentally different from the genre
played by the main attraction (a heavy metal band, for example, will not open
for Barry Manilow), Obama’s tone is unlikely to significantly differ from the
one Biden used Monday.
And Biden’s tone was both very warm and realistic,
two qualities that critics of Obama’s Israel policy said he lacked during his
first four years in office. Biden’s speech was chock full of understanding of
what Israel means for the Jews after the Holocaust, and his own special feeling
towards the country; as well as with an appreciation of the region’s changing
sands, and how that impacts upon Israel’s room to maneuver.
“We both know
that Israel faces new threats, new pressures and uncertainty,” Biden said. “The
Arab Spring, at once full of both hope and uncertainty, has required Israel –
and the United States – to reassess old and settled relationships.”
Those
words are pleasing to those in Jerusalem, like Netanyahu, who argue that it is
impossible to proceed with the diplomatic process with the Palestinians – one
that will demand that Israel take risks – while ignoring the dramatic changes
among its neighbors that make Israel more, not less, risk averse.
Barak’s
speech was instructional of Israeli thinking because he spoke of the Middle East
as “a Gestalt – everything depends on everything.”
After stressing that
Israel means what it says that “all options are on the table” when it comes to
Iran, Barak added there was a need for the building of a “regional security
framework” to deal with “the common challenges” of radical Islamist terror,
border security, and missile defense.
The ability to put together such a
framework will depend on progress on the Israeli- Palestinian track. And here
Barak gave cues as to where Jerusalem was heading: “I know a fully fledged
agreement is probably not feasible today, But if this is the case – and only a
sincere effort can determine this – we have to try and achieve a reasonable,
fair, interim agreement. I strongly believe this is possible, while guaranteeing
all our security and vital interests.”
And if that was not possible, he
said, if even an interim agreement was unobtainable, “then we should consider
unilateral steps in order to place a wedge on this extremely dangerous slippery
slope towards a binational state.”
Here, seeming to speak more for
himself than for Netanyahu, Barak said these steps involved “demarcating a line
within the land of Israel.” That line, he said, would place within Israel “the
settlement blocs and a solid Jewish majority for generations to come. As well as
setting security arrangements, and a solid Israeli, long-term military presence
along the River Jordan.”
Netanyahu also made clear what could be expected
from him during the visit. First, he said as a signal that he wanted to start
afresh with the president with whom he had a rocky relationship over the last
four years, the trip would afford an opportunity to express his and the
country’s “appreciation for what he [Obama] has done for Israel.”
He
spelled out to AIPAC the main issues on the agenda, in their order of
importance: Iran; Syria, and only then the Palestinians.
Netanyahu’s
remarks to AIPAC showed the degree to which he still believes in the importance
of defining a red line for Iran beyond which they must not be allowed to cross,
even though nobody else in the world – except for him – has drawn such a
line.
“Words alone will not stop Iran; Sanctions alone will not stop
Iran,” he said. “Sanctions must be coupled with a clear and credible military
threat if diplomacy and sanctions fail.”
He also underlined in his speech
that Syria could soon become a “strategic crisis, one of monumental proportion,”
and that it was necessary to strategize with the US on how to deal with this
issue now.
“Syria is a very poor country, but it has chemical weapons,
anti-aircraft weapons, and many other of the world’s most deadly and
sophisticated arms,” he said.
Then, using a vivid metaphor, he added,
“Terror groups such as Hezbollah and al-Qaida are trying to seize these weapons
as we speak. They are like hyenas feeding off a carcass – and the carcass is not
even dead yet.”
As for the Palestinian issue, Netanyahu indicated that
rather than shooting for a “grand bargain,” what is needed – and surely what he
will advocate with Obama – is a “measured step-by-step process in which we work
to advance to a verifiable, durable and defensible peace.”
Israel is
prepared for “meaningful compromise,” he said, adding – however – that “I will
never compromise on our security.”
Obama will be trying to bridge both
parts of that equation – “meaningful compromise” – with security. If the Biden
speech is any indication, the president’s attempt this time will be done with an
ear more sensitive to Israeli sensibilities.
|