On Jan 9, I wrote that Iran would launch a Pearl-Harbor type “surprise” attack on the US Navy in the Persian Gulf and that the attack would serve as a justification and a pretext for a retaliatory move by the US military against the Iranian regime.
I was amazed to see the numerous (practically viral) editorials and blogs that cited this section of my article, claiming that the use of quotes around the word “surprise” carried the implication that the US would manufacture an “incident” (I am using quotes again) where the Iranians would appear to have initiated an attack on a US warship, but, in fact, the US would initiate a provocation, inviting the attack.
Absolutely not! In no way did I try to convey the above interpretation. The critics were all wrong!
The Iranian regime is stuck in a macho syndrome. It blinds their rationality; it prevents the mullahs from breaking off their quest for nuclear weapons, even in the face of severe sanctions. The regime’s rhetoric has raised the temperature in Persian Gulf, with the Revolutionary Guards issuing multiple threats against the US and its allies. Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz; they would not allow US carriers to re-enter the Gulf; they would continue to develop their nuclear capability—all of which might cross the line and would invite a massive retaliation by the US.
The latest incident in the Gulf in which Iranian gunboats approached an American ship without having any shots fired is a first in a series of non-violent close encounters. The Iranians are playing a dangerous game. They are experts in setting up deceptive mirages, conditioning American misconceptions with regard to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s true intentions.
The Iranians will continue approaching American ships and then shift direction, moving away, until the Americans become aware of the fake drill, letting down their guard. Then, and only then, the Iranians will be able to draw near—sufficiently close for a deadly strike on a key American warship.
The presence of American warships in the Persian Gulf is the only “provocation” required for the Iranian mullahs to feel provoked. They have already confirmed that assertion. There is no need for a conspiracy on the part of the US. American military presence or Israel’s existence are sufficiently provocative in the eyes of these bullies.
Some people say that the Iranians are not crazy enough to start a war against the US. I disagree. The Iranians will miscalculate. They do not believe that the US would retaliate by initiating an all-out-war in response. They view the US and US President Barack Obama as paper tigers. The Ayatollah will repeat the same mistake that Hezbollah committed in 2006 when they kidnapped Israeli soldiers before Israel responded with an all-out-war they had not anticipated and had not wished for.
In today’s politically correct world where proportionate responses to aggression rule the roost, the Iranians will expect a limited American response, confined to local retaliation and accompanied by loud rhetoric from political opportunists. They will not anticipate the actual reaction because they will not understand the boiling rage they have been affecting in the US since the hostage crisis in the 1970s. They will not understand the determination of the American government to see to it that the Persian Gulf does not fall under Iranian control. They will fail to realize that their big-headed quest for nuclear weapons is a blood-red line that a president on the verge of election season may not be able to overlook.
My prediction that 2012 will see a new war, but this time, Iran will initiate it is NOT wishful thinking. It is a logical inference of an unpleasant reality where the Iranian regime will be successful in bringing about its own demise due to its own miscalculation.
The writer is currently a talk show host at Paltalk News Network (PNN). He served as an intelligence expert for the Israeli government and was a professor at Northwestern University. He is the author of Fundamentals of Voice Quality Engineering in Wireless Networks, and more recently, 72 Virgins. For more information about the author, go to www.aviperry.org.