The complex world Obama must now face

Key foreign policy issues facing Obama during his second term include Islamism in Africa and communism in China.

By TIMOTHY SPANGLER
Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev 370 (photo credit: reuters)
Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev 370
(photo credit: reuters)
With the re-election of US President Barack Obama earlier this week, it is an appropriate time to take stock of America’s position in the world and the threats it faces in the near-term.  Foreign affairs took a surprisingly small role in the campaign over the past 18 months.  The American electorate focused almost entirely on domestic issues, such as the economy and social issues.
Now that the ballots have been counted, the Obama administration must decide how best to secure the safety and interests of Americans over the next four years, and beyond.
There is an obviously link between important domestic issues, such as the lingering recession, and the ability of the US to project its agenda abroad.  With anemic growth rates and high unemployment, America will not have the ability to mold and direct events like it had in the post-War years.  The fact that the task at hand is more difficult, however, does not make it less important or a lower priority.What are the key foreign policy issues facing Obama during his second term that he might be tempted to ignore or push down his action items list?
First, there is the rise of Islamist forces in Africa.  While it may be true that bin Ladin is dead, it is only wishful thinking to say that al Qaeda is on the run.  Extremist groups with links to al Qaeda continue to proliferate in failing African states.
Decades of poverty and corruption have made many African countries easy pickings for militant groups who are well armed and highly motivated.  Continued bloodshed in Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and elsewhere in the continent means that Africa must remain a high priority for American diplomats and politicians in the years that come.
Next, China is currently undergoing its once-a-decade handover of power.  Despite a few scandals that drew attention to the rampant corruption within the higher echelons of the ruling Communist Party, the transition appears to be proceeding according to script.  Without a doubt, the bilateral relationship between the US and China is single most important diplomatic, economic and military relationship on the planet in the 21st century.  Although a host of other pitfalls and quagmires potentially lay ahead for Washington, the lives Americans will live at the end of this century, including their prosperity and well-being, will be dictated to a great degree by how well American leaders adapt to China’s continued ascendency.
Clearly, China faces many challenges as it wrestles with the consequences of both the last three decades of stellar growth, and the corrupt, incestuous links that have developed between Chinese companies and different levels of local, provincial and national government.  For those who might wish for a weak Beijing, and  a China that is ripped apart by internal strife and upheavals, it is useful to pause and remember that the bloodshed ultimately resulting from German instability and insecurity was far greater than the impact a unified and cohesive Germany would eventually have on its neighbors.Finally, the development of effective, moderate political discourse in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa must be supported and promoted.  The path in this region to modern democracies that support the rule of law and free civil society will not be a short one, nor will it mimic at every stage the path that European countries and their progeny followed. 
The US must be prepared to work with all parties participating in the political process to help ensure that the transition away from autocracy and dictatorship continues and ultimately benefits all of the citizens, not just an elite cadre of senior figures.
The Muslim world should look to the transition of the economies in many East Asian and the South East Asian economies in recent decades as a potential model.  These countries moved millions out of poverty and established a foundation upon which liberal democratic principles can begin to take route, if only slowly.  By including the Muslim world in the wider global economy, and fostering the economic growth and job creation that oil production and extraction industries simply cannot match, meaningful steps can be taken to help these countries move away from radicalism and extremism.
Notably, these three key issues must battle for White House attention from among countless other short- and long-term threats.  On any given day, issues with Russia, Mexico, Israel and Palestine, and the legacies of Afghanistan and Iraq can take center-stage.  However, as thorny as these issues are, they do not have the same vast potential to reshape the work in coming years as the three challenges listed above.
Of course, returning the US to growth must be an overall priority in the second Obama term.  This will also be an important step towards attaining the country’s foreign policy priorities.  In the meantime, the Obama administration must make difficult decisions, many of which will be unpopular, about the threats that America faces.  Despite the continuation of divided government, with Republicans retaining control of the House and Democrats the Senate, foreign policy has always been the area in which a president can set his own course and benefit from significant deference from Congress.
Let us hope that with his re-election, Obama has the confidence to make those difficult decisions when needed.
The writer is a commentator who divides his time between the United Kingdom and Southern California. He has appeared on CNN, CNBC, BBC and Sky News, and has been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Financial Times and The Economist.