The political center is dangerous territory

If an Israeli party panders to those in the center, it risks losing long-term influence.

By MICHAEL HARRIS
The Knesset 390 (R) (photo credit: Ammar Awad / Reuters)
The Knesset 390 (R)
(photo credit: Ammar Awad / Reuters)
There are many ways to obtain leverage in the Knesset — one of which, some analysts believe, is by controlling the centrist bloc.  Many party chairpersons usually follow this piece of advice in an attempt to strategically position their party.  But the truth is, politicians should exercise caution in attempting to control this political bloc.
All polls have indicated that the right-religious bloc will form a majority in the next Knesset.  This will prevent centrist parties from gaining real control, for they can only have true leverage if they can prevent either wing from obtaining the majority of seats.  This would place parties on both sides of the spectrum into a situation where they need the consent of the center to support all executive and legislative initiatives.
This fact alone should force politicians to hesitate when deciding to implement a centrist-leaning strategy.  Additionally, the negative public perception of centrist parties creates another obstacle that these party chairpersons must overcome.  Minister Benny Begin’s opinion on the centrist Kadima party illustrates the way many Israelis feel about centrist parties.
"So I say that the group in Kadima are oddballs. It has to be said: oddballs. I don't know if their party can be called a party, but its base is opportunism,” he said in an interview with the Haaretz magazine.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Opposition Chairwoman Shelly Yachimovich also pose an enormous obstacle to centrist parties.  The rise of their parties is partially the result of some centrist Israelis switching their allegiances to one of the two parties.Netanyahu’s efforts to portray the Likud as an inclusive center-right party have been very successful.  In the Haaretz article titled, “If Lapid isn't careful, Netanyahu will pick his pocket” Aluf Benn writes, “[Netanyahu] pickpocketed former opposition chief Tzipi Livni with his Bar-Ilan speech, in which he expressed support for a Palestinian state.” 
Netanyahu changed the image of Likud in a way that is attracting many centrist Israeli voters. Yachimovich has also succeeded in increasing Labor’s centrist voter base.  Her decision to rebrand Labor as an inclusive social justice party is heavily appealing to many centrist voters who normally disagree with Labor’s policies.
Additionally, there are so many parties seeking to control the center —Yesh Atid, Kadima, and a possible new party by Tzipi Livni — that no one party will likely dominate the center.  The result will be a multitude of tiny parties, none of which will have any serious significance in the next Knesset.
What if a centrist party manages to defy expectations and gain an enormous amount of seats?  It will likely not be good enough.  Even Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset, held little leverage in the coalition negotiations that preceded its entering into the government.
Netanyahu did not need Kadima’s 28 seats to form a majority, so Kadima Chairman Shaul Mofaz had little leverage in the coalition negotiations. Kadima only received one cabinet position after an agreement was made, and it is doubtful that a much smaller centrist party would receive more ministries if it attempted to join a future Likud-led coalition.
This does not necessarily mean that the number of seats a party holds equals its influence.  United Torah Judaism, a mere five-seat party, chairs the influential Knesset Finance committee because they have discovered a different way to gain leverage in the coalition negotiations.  By presenting themselves as essentially a single issue party — supporting the Haredi community — they allow Netanyahu to broaden his coalition without inhibiting his ability to implement policies in other areas.
The major centrist parties seek to accomplish a broad number of initiatives upon their election.  This makes them tremendously less attractive to Netanyahu, and therefore hurts their political worth to him in any future negotiations that may take place.
Moreover, the short lives of centrist parties casts doubt over the ability of a centrist party to maintain long term influence.  The Likud party has political roots which date back to Menachem Begin’s founding of Herut, and Labor is a political offspring of David Ben-Gurion’s Mapai.  While centrist parties such as General Zionists existed in 1948, all modern day centrist parties have no serious connection with parties that date to Israel’s founding.
The next Knesset will mark a significant change in Israeli politics.  It is highly likely that the Knesset will return to a system of two major parties, and the center will no longer be a place of wonderful political opportunity. 
There may not be a future for Yesh Atid.
The writer is a Politics and Hebrew and Judaic Studies student at New York University. He is also the President of Violets For Israel, a pro-Israel political organization at NYU.