It is a truism that the vice of revenge has motivated humans since the dawn of
history. The August 6 downing of a NATO helicopter in Afghanistan killing 30
American troops is perhaps the latest demonstration of a Taliban proxy
retaliation to avenge the spectacular loss of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida’s
legendary founder. The casualties included 22 Navy SEALs from Team Six, the
secretive unit behind the daring raid that killed the leader on May 2 in
Pakistan.
While it is premature to reach any definitive conclusion on the
rationale for the Taliban’s deadliest attack, the frightening prospect is the
new al-Qaida will seek to retaliate directly against the US in a big way with
weapons of mass destruction. During the Nuclear Security Summit held in
Washington, DC in April 2010, US President Barack Obama expressed his concerns
about a “doomsday” scenario. He warned that al-Qaida and other terrorist
organizations “are in the process of trying to secure nuclear weapons or other
weapons of mass destruction, and would have no compunction at using
them.”
Now, four months after the Abbottabad operation and the death of
the notorious mastermind of 9/11, the lingering question that still remains is
al-Qaida’s worst revenge yet to come? Two reasons account for this likely
eventuality. First is the persistent motivation of deep hatred towards the US
and its friends and allies. For instance, in February 1998, bin Laden pronounced
a fatwah (religious ruling) that Muslims should kill Americans, including
civilians, anywhere in the world they could be found, and in the following May,
he stated in a declaration titled “The Nuclear Bomb of Islam,” that it is the
duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to attack the “enemies of
God.”
Second is the network’s unending effort to obtain an unconventional
capability. Bin Laden’s operatives have relentlessly searched for such weapons
and the materials to build them. The lure of engaging in a successful WMD
operation as a worthy follow-up to 9/11 still persists as a “divine force.” The
sights are definitely on something big. For example, in 2003, New York officials
were alerted to a possible hydrogen cyanide gas attack by al-Qaida operatives on
the New York subway system.
It didn’t materialize, supposedly called off
by Ayman Zawahiri, at the time al-Qaida’s second in command, for “something
better.”
Now, once again, the threat of terrorist attack on nuclear power
plants is in the spotlight after the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission asked
nuclear reactor operators for additional proof of their ability to withstand
acts of terrorism from the outside or perpetrated by insiders that may have
unforeseen consequences.
Additionally, al-Qaida’s most likely option for
a “nuclear” attack is setting off a radiological dirty bomb in a Western city
that would contaminate only a small area with limited casualties but would cause
widespread fear and panic, especially in the financial markets.
In the
face of al-Qaida’s looming potential for unconventional revenge over the death
of bin Laden, it is critical for the US and its allies to immediately strengthen
their intelligence mechanisms and strategic partnerships. In the longer term,
they must also employ “soft” elements in the restless Arab and Muslim worlds,
including support of economic and social developments, assistance in creating
job opportunities, help in reducing religious radicalism and promotion of
tolerance, democratic values and civil society engagement.
Yonah
Alexander is Professor Emeritus of the State University of New York and Director
of the International Center for Terrorism Studies at the Potomac Institute for
Policy Studies. Milton Hoenig was professor of physics at the University of
Massachusetts. They co-authored The New Iranian Leadership
(2008).