|Panel at Jerusalem Post Conference 370.(Photo by: Marc Israel Sellem)|
Analysis: A cacophony that cannot be ignored
By YAAKOV KATZ
Leaders at the 'Post' conference: Israel shouldn't lead Iran strike, should improve relationship with Obama.
The Middle East might be thousands of miles away, but on Sunday New York became
the battleground for the Israeli-Iranian conflict as former top Israeli
government and security officials spoke out against the government’s policies on
Former prime minister Ehud Olmert, former chief of staff Lt.- Gen.
(res.) Gabi Ashkenazi and former Mossad director Meir Dagan all said at The
Jerusalem Post Conference that Israel should not lead the campaign against Iran,
should not plan an attack in the near future and should instead try and improve
its working relationship with the Obama administration.
Both Olmert and
Ashkenazi warned against a premature military strike, with the former prime
minister taking it a step further, questioning whether Israeli unilateral action
would even be effective in stopping Iran.
On their own, the comments
could be viewed as just a bit more criticism of Prime Minister Binyamin
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. It could, however, be something
On Friday, former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Yuval
Diskin spoke out in an unprecedented way against the government and said that
Barak and Netanyahu were guided by “messianic” impulses and were lying about the
projected effectiveness of an Israeli strike on Iran.
came just a few days after a series of interviews IDF Chief of Staff
Benny Gantz gave the Israeli press in which he claimed that the
sanctions were effective. He also predicted that Iran would ultimately decide
not to build a nuclear weapon. At the same time, though, Gantz stressed that the
IDF has the ability to attack Iran and set back its nuclear program if ordered
to do so by the government.
While Netanyahu and Barak tried to frame
Diskin’s comments as being made by a bitter exsecurity chief who was not given
the job he wanted (as head of the Mossad), this cacophony is not something that
can be ignored. This is especially true when it includes the former heads of the
IDF, the Shin Bet and the Mossad as well as a former prime minister who is just
as knowledgeable when it comes to the pros and cons of a strike on Iran’s
While there seems to be a major divide between the
way these former officials view the Iranian threat and the way Netanyahu and
Barak see it, all agree that Israel needs to wait and give the sanctions time
before taking action. The difference is on the nuance and particularly on how
long Israel should wait.
While Barak, for example, speaks about the
so-called “immunity zone” that Iran is moving into that could make an Israeli
attack ineffective, these officials argue that there is still time. As Ashkenazi
said on Sunday: A strike does not need to be launched tomorrow
On the other hand, all of this talk could be connected to a
sense that a government decision on Iran is coming up soon and that this might
be the last chance to affect how the cabinet votes.
All ultimately agree
on two things – Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and time is not
on Israel’s side. The difference is on when the clock will run out.