THIS IS why the meetings held at the Kirya this past week were so important. Though both sides deny they are coordinating operational plans to attack Iran, it is likely that feelers are being put out by Israel to see what type of support, if at all, it could expect to receive from the US in the event of an airstrike.

As demonstrated by past coordination between the two countries - during the Yom Kippur War, for instance, when the US sent weaponry to the IDF, and surrounding Israel's September bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor, for the Bush administration gave its consent - it is not likely that Israel would be able to strike Iran without first coordinating it with the US.

This coordination could take the form of an unspoken understanding that allows the IAF to fly over Iraq, or perhaps even include permission to use American bases in the Gulf to refuel and rearm.

Meanwhile, there are other challenges on the horizon that have to do with unknown variables. One such variable is that Teheran is believed to have purchased, but not yet received, the advanced Russian-made S-300 air defense missile system, capable of tracking dozens of targets and engaging over a dozen of them simultaneously at a range of hundreds of kilometers. Senior IDF officers have warned recently that this system cannot be allowed to reach the region. If it does, it would pose a major obstacle to an Israeli strike, and as a result, the IDF might be prompted to launch such an attack before the system is deployed in Iran.

Another unknown variable is the domestic situation in Iran. Presidential elections are scheduled for mid-2009, shortly after John McCain or Barack Obama move into the Oval Office.

According to a Newsweek report this week, current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stands a 50% chance of losing reelection, in light of growing inflation. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may decide not to support the incumbent president, and instead push for a conservative candidate who may be more open to EU incentives.

Israel may be inclined to allow that process to play out, and therefore might hold off on an airstrike until after the Iranian elections.

On the other hand, there is the question of what the US will do. According to a recent CBS report, Vice President Dick Cheney is in favor of attacking Iran, against the recommendations of Mullen and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Still, one window of opportunity to do so that has been suggested is the period between the US presidential elections in November and the inauguration in January 2009.

There is no guarantee, however, that Israel can wait that long.