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Middle East & Israel Breaking News » Opinion » Op-Ed Contributors » Article

Why Russia is not afraid of an Iranian bomb


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US President Barack Obama's recent decision to cancel the deployment of an anti-missile defense (AMD) system in Eastern Europe was met with approval by the Russian authorities. In exchange, speaking at the recent G-20 summit in Pittsburgh last month, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev changed his position regarding sanctions against Iran.

Russian President Dmitry...

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Photo: AP

While Russia had, until recently, vetoed UN Security Council resolutions against the Iranian nuclear program, Medvedev suddenly hardened his rhetoric, mentioning sanctions as a possible course of action. Either way, it is quite clear that Russia, which borders Iran on the Caspian Sea, does not fear the emergence of its new nuclear neighbor and is even actively aiding the construction of the nuclear station in Iran. Why? The reasons are manifold.

RUSSIA HAS traditionally maintained good sources of information within Iran. Its specialists, who are closely involved in the construction of the nuclear site, probably have information that is unknown to the rest of the world. For example, these sources may indicate that Iran is still rather far from creating the bomb, or perhaps they believe they can control the process.

Similarly, Russia's strategic and tactical interests cannot be ignored. Russia is probably unhappy with nuclear weapons being positioned so close to its own territory, yet seems sure that these weapons won't pose a threat to its sovereignty. This is because Russia stands to benefit greatly from Iran's opposition vis-a-vis the United States and the United Nations Security Council, for two reasons: First, Iran is primarily a threat to Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. This will increase regional tensions and strengthen Russia's position there. Good relations with Iran could position Russia as a mediator between these countries and the Islamic republic. For example, the recent cancellation of the deal to sell Iran anti-aircraft complexes was used to leverage Russia-Israel relations.

Second, Russia can use its relations with Iran as a bargaining chip in opposing the United States. The latest events demonstrate how, by changing its position toward sanctions, Russia achieved its goal: canceling the AMD program, despite its having been approved by the previous US administration.

Further, Russia isn't willing to forgo its economic relations with Iran. It benefits from the construction of a nuclear power station as it competes for supplying the necessary raw materials and supplies Iran with different types of weapons (including anti-aircraft), not to mention regular trade. This is probably one of the main reasons Russia is interested in preserving good relations with Iran.

Another factor worth mentioning is the issue of religion. Iran traditionally opposes radical Salafi Sunni Islamic movements such as that practiced by the Taliban and the Wahabiyya, which have become a serious threat in Russia's northern Caucasus area, especially Dagestan. These common enemies unite Russia and Iran.

Finally, Russia and Iran are both significant suppliers of oil to the world market. Every increase of political tension in the region influences oil prices, from which Russia can only gain. This is especially true during times of military conflict.

The fact of the matter remains that Russia does not believe in sanctions. For these reasons, Moscow benefits more than suffers from today's status quo. This set of Russian national interests further complicates the Iranian nuclear crisis - and illustrates that only a great level of creative diplomacy might resolve it.

The writer is an associate fellow at the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies and a research fellow in the Cummings Center for Russian and East European Studies at Tel Aviv University.

The article was first published by the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies, at the Shalem Center, www.adelsoninstitute.org

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104. thank you for shutting off BING!
steven teiko - america (10/19/2009 22:56)
103. #95 CJM Iran is not Russia's proxy and ally.That is not possible with the people of Iran.Russians are not liked here.It is a marriage of convinience
Mehvar - Iran (10/19/2009 05:13)
102. 60% of the russian military is muslim
doug - usa (10/17/2009 08:14)
101. Russkies at the Door
James Dean - Texas is a country (10/17/2009 02:11)
100. What is Russia up to with Iran?
R. Wymer - USA (10/16/2009 05:53)
99. of course Russia is not afraid of a nuclear Iran...
Jesus Freak - usa (10/16/2009 05:28)
98. Jehovah and Israel
NDM - USA (10/15/2009 01:07)
97. Ahmadijad better hide in a very deep hole as I suspect US is
uncle sam here - (10/14/2009 22:19)
96. #53: Hard to Claim the Moral High ground While Selling F15s to Saudi Head-Choppers
Ovadiah ben Avraham - Israel (10/14/2009 21:38)
95. It is very easy to figure that out. Iran is Russia's proxy and closest ally!
C.J.M. - U.S.A. (10/14/2009 19:19)
94. Creative diplomacy is nonsense as this writer shows in his own article' You cannot talk Iran out of the Bomb
i c truly - Israel (10/14/2009 18:14)
93. Russia-Stalins-was also not afraid of Hitler.Until he overrun them 40km up to Moscow
CounterpropagandaGil - Germany (10/14/2009 18:11)
92. Jehovah vs 12th Imam
R. Wymer - USA (10/14/2009 17:28)
91. "The reasons are manifold."
cb - (10/14/2009 15:12)
90. Russia and Iran
William Diller - USA (10/14/2009 15:09)
89. Why Russia is not afraid of an Iranian bomb
Kevin - U.S.A. (10/14/2009 15:07)
88. Hillary Clinton has NO clue
Jack - (10/14/2009 14:38)
87. Iran is Russia's proxy against the West
gospelmidi - USA (10/14/2009 14:33)
86. Russia knows how to build conflict
NDM - USA (10/14/2009 14:12)
85. So much for quqid pro quo
Robert - USA (10/14/2009 11:51)
84. #73 is Wrong - Russia Provoked Georgia and can not be trusted
Russia is scary - USA (10/14/2009 11:44)
83. Can not trust Russia
Russia is Selfish - USA (10/14/2009 09:01)
82. #23 Excellent suggestion
myself - (10/14/2009 06:16)
81. Pathological Thinking
R. Wymer - USA (10/14/2009 05:15)
80. remember georgia?
sas473 - usa (10/14/2009 04:33)
79. #12
Paula - USA (10/14/2009 04:19)
78. Iran and Israel
Chris - (10/14/2009 03:46)
77. No oil demand if Iran starts WWIII=Iranian regime kaput.
Crime Doesnt Pay - (10/14/2009 03:36)
76. Check #23
g champ - (10/14/2009 03:05)
75. Russia wants US/Israel attack on Iran to drive oil to $200/barrel
wile e coyote - (10/14/2009 02:00)
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