global agenda 88.
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Last week's column presented the spectre of European civil war, which will be inevitable if two conditions are fulfilled: that the current demographic trends and expectations (notably about immigration into the EU, mainly from North Africa) pan out and, critically, that Christian Europe decides to fight back rather than passively accept Islamification.
Neither of these conditions is a certainty, but the demographic trends are already far advanced. The collapse of native European (read white Christian) birth rates on the one side, and the high birth rates and even higher immigration rates of the Muslim minorities means that the ratio of fighting-age males is set to collapse from 18:1 today to a mere 2:1 by 2025.
This is the nightmare scenario predicted by British author Paul Weldon.
However, as he notes in his second article on this theme (http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2007/04/is-european-civil-war-inevitable-by.html), there are numerous other possible scenarios, although he rejects all except the "civil-war-is-inevitable" one. Among these are that "Islam peaceably integrates into Europe and we all live happily ever after" and that Islam moderates because the Muslim silent majority succeeds in reclaiming Islam from the extremists, making peaceful co-existence possible. Neither of these seem at all likely, or even possible, given current trends.
The other options he raises, that Europe is quietly Islamized and Christian culture fades into oblivion, or the alternative where Europe expels its Muslim minority, are also brusquely dismissed - leaving only the path to horrendous civil war.
While tending to agree with Weldon's conclusion, I would note that its realization requires a leap of faith, in both the literal and metaphoric senses. The evidence currently available strongly favors the passive-demise-of-Christian-culture scenario. This is now the default option, and only a dramatic shift in public opinion and behavior - a leap of faith - can move Europe from the demographic oblivion path to the full-scale civil war route. However, in one crucial aspect, these two routes, and indeed the expel-the-Muslims one, as well, all lead to the same place - the elimination of the European Jewish community. If the Muslims take over, the Jews will find their lives made impossible; but if a war breaks out between Christians and Muslims - or, to be historically accurate, if the struggle between Christians and Muslims for mastery of Europe is renewed - then the Jews will be caught in the middle and will have no life at all.
This is not the stuff of polite conversation, least of all in Europe itself, where the pretence of multiculturalism and Holocaust remembrance is upheld by the current governing elites. But the Jews have been around in Europe for too long - and their most recent, twentieth-century, European experience is too fresh in their memories - to be fooled by facades. With repression, expulsion and annihilation the most probable long-term scenarios facing them, they have begun making their own arrangements. In practical terms, these involve relocating either to North America or Israel. Remarkably, both alternatives are very much on the agenda.
From an Israeli viewpoint, the relocation process is still in its early stages, but several aspects are already clear. First, large amounts of capital - meaning billions of euro - are flowing into Israel from European Jews and have made their mark on the real estate markets of many cities. The flow of people is still very small, if measured in terms of aliya, but is significant in terms of holiday tourists, students and other personal visitors. All these flows are likely to be stepped up, in line with the deterioration of Jewish security and communal stability in Europe.
The implications for Israel, its economy and society, are staggering. On the eve of the country's 59th Independence Day, the received wisdom in official and intellectual circles is that no further mass aliya can be expected (interestingly, this was also the accepted view in the late 1980s). This time, however, there can be no grounds for surprise: the writing is on the wall for European Jewry, it's not in code and needs no interpretation. The way European Jews are behaving demonstrates that they have read and absorbed the message, even if the Israeli government and bureaucracy have not.
Fortunately for this forthcoming wave of immigrants, they should not have to depend on the government and its agencies to get them out, get them here and get them back on their feet. Although they will be seeking refuge, they will not be coming as refugees in the classic sense, but will bring their financial, cultural and intellectual wealth with them. In its outward form, the impending Exodus from Europe therefore should be quite opposite to that of Exodus 1947, and indeed to the original Exodus - but its driving force and goal will be the same.