Natanz nuclear facility_311 reuters.
(photo credit: STR New / Reuters)
For the past year, Israel and the West have reportedly spoken about a clear red
line that, if crossed, meant military action was likely the only way to stop
Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
This imaginary line has delineated
the point where the Iranians go to the so-called “breakout stage,” kick out
international inspectors from their facilities, start enriching uranium to
military- grade levels and begin building a nuclear bomb.
Ahmadinejad, Chavez mock US, joke about bombUS: Iran uranium enrichment a 'further escalation'
updated intelligence assessments, if this were to happen tomorrow, it would take
the Iranians anywhere from six to 18 more months to complete a
The announcement on Monday that the Fordow facility near Qom has
been activated has the potential of becoming a game-changer and could ultimately
lead the Israeli government to move up its attack plans against Iran’s nuclear
There is a very simple reason for this: Fordow can store
several thousand centrifuges as well as between one and two tons of enriched
It is burrowed under hundreds of feet of mountain and, as
Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said in the past, is immune to conventional
This means that the dispersal of such capabilities to
Fordow could make a military strike ineffective since even if the other key
facilities – Arak, Natanz, Isfahan and Bushehr – are destroyed, the enriched
uranium at Fordow would survive and could still be used to build a
For this very reason, while Israel has agreed with the West that
Iran is not yet building a bomb, its timeline has not been based solely on that
consideration. Israelis have also always spoken about the parallel, but
independent, process that is moving forward all the time – the fortification,
dispersion and increasing immunity of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
Washington, the activation of Fordow is not, in of itself, a red line. This was
made clear by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on Sunday when he appeared on
the television program Face the Nation and said that, for the United States, the
red line was the development of a nuclear weapon, not just the
It is also not completely clear if the activation of the
facility is on its own enough of a red line for Israel that it would prompt a
military strike. This is particularly true now that the world appears to be
cracking down harder than ever on Iran’s economy – the US recently imposed new
sanctions and the European Union is looking to ban Iranian oil.
might prefer to let that move play itself out first.
But even without
Fordow in the equation, Israeli and American intelligence agencies need to ask
themselves a very basic question: Do they would know if Iran has gone to the
breakout stage and is building a bomb.
Iran’s main enrichment facility at
Natanz is under IAEA supervision, and if the military- grade enrichment is done
there the world would know.
There is, however, always the possibility
that somewhere else in Iran there is nuclearrelated activity taking place that
nobody knows about.
While Israel and the US are confident that they have
a good handle on developments there, intelligence blunders have cost both
They cannot afford another one when it comes to
That is why, while the activation of the Fordow facility is a
source for concern, Israel is not expected to immediately fuel its jets and fly
to bomb Iran.
There is a lot of signaling going on in the region right
now – the British are sending a warship to the Persian Gulf, the US and Iran are
exchanging threats over the Straits of Hormuz, and the US and Israel are gearing
up for the largest-ever joint missile defense exercise.
that Fordow is being activated could be an attempt by Tehran to increase its
leverage ahead of new talks with the West, reported to be scheduled to resume
soon in Turkey.
Either way, the nuclear clock is ticking, and today it is
moving faster than before.