eye on iran blog 88.
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Posted by Brian J., New Bern, North Carolina, USA
It often surprises me how US motives are misunderstood.
There were 3 nations put on the "Axis of Evil" several years ago by the US President: Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. Two of these lie next to or on 60% or more of the worlds known oil supplies, and are surrounded by relatively weak neighbors. The other, North Korea sits in an insignificant strategic location for the US, and is surrounded by 4 nations, each of which is more powerful than it. The US sees its involvement there as simply one of preventing nuclear proliferation to other nations. Don't look to how the US responds to N. Korea as giving any clues to actions it takes in the Middle East.
Look to Iraq. The Iraq situation changed when it became obvious that Saddam's sons would almost definitely be heirs to power in Iraq, and that the sanctions would soon fall apart. There was seemingly no believable positive outcome without military intervention. The US timed the action to its political clock.
Iran has always been viewed as potentially being a much more dangerous situation! With Iraq, the world could depend on Saddam to act in the most selfish manner, being content to simply threatening to use nuclear weapons (when he acquired them). With Saddam, one could argue that a balanced military threat would always keep him in check. (It was a great argument.) Even with that calculation, the US went to war!!
But with Iran, it is not believed that a balanced threat would prevent nuclear use. Those in Iranian leadership are "true believers." Ahmadinejad has made it clear he intends to use nuclear weapons, even if it means his and Iran's destruction. Do we doubt him?
So how much more likely is a military strike against Iran? It is inevitable. How could the Iranian political structure not understand this US perspective? The only hope Iran had was hiding its nuclear ambitions, and/or convincing the world that it was becoming pro-western. It failed miserably on both counts.
My point is this:
1) Ahmadinejad has been a blessing to Israel and the world, because he makes actions against Iran politically palatable much earlier, and a much lower risk.
2) WAKE UP, Iranian leadership! This path assures your destruction. Look next door to the west. Don't believe all the reports you see in opposition papers in the US and in Europe insisting on peace with Iran. This is the west; everything gets printed, the supporters, the opposition, the good, the bad, the ugly, the profane, etc.
What is so frustrating is that I believe the Iranian leaders truly think they will "get away" with all this. I don't know if they look at the North Koreans as examples, but the mullahs should remember what neighborhood they are in and look to the example next door.
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Previous blog entries:
The true threat
In the light of history