It's official. June 12, 2009, has been chosen as the official date for Iran's next presidential election.
By MEIR JAVEDANFARAhmadinejad China 224 ap(photo credit: )
It's official. June 12, 2009, has been chosen as the official date for Iran's next presidential election. Although it has not been declared officially, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad almost without doubt is going to be running as a candidate.
What concerns many, especially Ahmadinejad's competitors, is that the contest is over before it has even began.
Last week, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, told Ahmadinejad during a sermon that he should plan for another term. "In other words, imagine that in addition to this year, another four years will be under your management. Work with this in mind; act and plan accordingly," he said.
When the supreme leader of Iran makes such a statement, many see it as a seal of approval for the president. Since Khamenei was responsible for
ANALYSIS allowing cheating in Ahmadinejad's favor in the 2005 election, with a statement like this, many are convinced that next year's presidential election is a foregone conclusion.
However, upon closer inspection of the political history of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one can see that there is still everything to fight for. Khamenei has gone against his promises before.
This was shown in 1996 when he openly stated that he wanted Nateq Nouri to become president; instead, his arch rival, Muhammad Khatami, won. That could not have happened without Khamenei's consent.
Although chances of Ahmadinejad being reelected have substantially increased because of this statement, we must not forget that there are 10 months before the election. Ten months in Iranian politics is equivalent to 10 years in Swedish politics, in terms of movement.
A lot can happen by then. Khamenei will sit and watch Ahmadinejad's performance and the falling oil prices. If Teheran Mayor Muhammad Bagher Ghalibaf or Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who for now are the most popular alternatives, can offer themselves as better choices, one of them will replace Ahmadinejad, no matter what the supreme leader told him. Ayatollah Khamenei is only truly loyal to one person: himself.
Meir Javedanfar is the coauthor of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the State of Iran. He recently started the Middle East Analyst Blog at www.MiddleEastAnalyst.com
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