Smith poll found to be most accurate

Final results to be announced Wednesday morning.

September 25, 2019 00:01
1 minute read.
2019 election

Election tickets for the 39 parties who ran in the 2019 Israeli elections with the envelope voters must insert their ballot into, April 9, 2019. (photo credit: BEN BRESKY)

Pollster Rafi Smith, whose company Smith Research has been taking polls for The Jerusalem Post for more than 20 years, was found by a study circulated on social media to have the most accurate poll ahead of the September 17 election.

The study listed all the polls published in Israeli media outlets the weekend before the election. It found Smith’s poll, which was published in the Post’s sister paper in Hebrew, Maariv, to be closest to the actual results of parties and political blocs.

The final Smith Research poll that could legally be published before the election predicted 33 seats for Likud, 32 for Blue and White, 12 for the Joint List, nine for Yamina, eight for Yisrael Beytenu, eight for Shas, seven for UTJ, six for the Democratic Union and five for Labor-Gesher. 

In fact, Likud won 31 seats, Blue and White 33, the Joint List 13, Yamina seven, Yisrael Beytenu eight, Shas nine, UTJ eight, five for the Democratic Union and five for Labor-Gesher.

Smith was the only pollster who predicted accurately that the far Right Otzma Yehudit Party would not cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. The party did not even come close to crossing the threshold, which was 143,993 votes. Otzma won 83,266 votes according to preliminary results.

The final results will be announced on Wednesday morning at 11 a.m. at a festive meeting of the Central Elections Committee at the Knesset.

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