Uncertainty continues over tycoon's mayoral candidacy.
By ETGAR LEFKOVITSgaydamak aj 224.88(photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)
A mayoral run by the Shas strongman Aryeh Deri could have more than one political victim.
While Deri's entry into the November 11 race - pending far from certain legal approval - will have the greatest negative impact on the declared haredi candidate in the mayoral elections, MK Meir Porush of the United Torah Judaism Party, it is also seen as likely to adversely affect the candidacy of the Israeli-Russian billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak.
According to public opinion polls, Gaydamak, who has been openly courting haredi voters - most recently with his declaration that the city's annual gay pride parade would take place in the city "over his dead body" - stands to lose a slice of his current public support if Deri enters the race.
Gaydamak, who has consistently polled at the bottom of the barrel in a three-way race against Jerusalem opposition leader Nir Barkat and Porush, drops to only single-digit support if Deri runs, his lowest level to date, according to a Dahaf poll published last week in Yediot Aharonot.
In a four-way race, Barkat would win 49 percent of the vote, compared to 22% for Deri, 17% for Porush, and a mere 7% for Gaydamak, the poll found.
In a two-way race, Barkat would defeat Deri 55 to 41%, and would beat Porush 58 to 38%, according to the poll. It is worthy to note that the mainstream public opinion telephone poll is seen as favoring the secular candidate, and inaccurately forecast the results of last mayoral elections.
Deri's entry into the mayoral race is seen as hurting Gaydamak's chances - in addition to Porush's - in the race because both Deri and Gaydamak appeal to some of the same voters.
"They are both going after the same sector of more open haredim, traditional and Mizrahi voters - some of whom are attracted to Gaydamak because of his populist message and supposed social concern," says Dr. Gideon Raat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"But [it is] Deri [who] is a magician in this sector," Raat said.
In contrast to Gaydamak, Barkat has invested little effort in gaining the support of the haredi community - who make up one-third of city's Jewish residents but who traditionally support en masse the haredi candidate in the race - focusing instead on getting support, and a higher voter turnout, among the secular, traditional and modern Orthodox sectors.
Despite his sagging poll numbers, Gaydamak has repeatedly insisted that he is, indeed, running in the November 11 race.
A Gaydamak spokesman categorically denied late on Monday a weekend report in the Yediot Yerushalayim weekly that Gaydamak is considering his options in the municipal race, with one possibility reportedly under consideration that Gaydamak's party will run in the city council elections, but that he will not take part in the mayoral race itself.
An official in Gaydamak's party had said earlier Monday that "there were considerations one way and the other," noting that the tycoon, who will "apparently" be running in the mayoral race, has a range of advisers who have held a number of meetings on the issue.
Recently, Gaydamak has set up swanky campaign headquarters and held meetings with a Papal representative and even the Mufti of Jerusalem, but despite his various media pronouncements that he is "running 100%," he has yet to hold a press conference officially announcing his mayoral run. By law, he has until October 6 to submit his candidacy in the mayoral race.
In the meantime, he will watch what happens with Deri's attempt to run. Whether he does so from the sidelines - as he has until now - or the much-promised "soon-to-be-launched" campaign trail, Deri's decision is likely to impact his own run.
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