Analysis: Is Lupolianski really out of the race?

UTJ insider: If Porush doesn't improve in polls, he may be replaced.

By ETGAR LEFKOVITS
Lupolianski smiley 88 (photo credit: )
Lupolianski smiley 88
(photo credit: )
Less than two months before the Jerusalem mayoral race, the identity of the final haredi candidate - or candidates - in the election still remains murky. Officially, MK Meir Porush of the United Torah Judaism Party has been anointed the party's successor to Mayor Uri Lupolianski. This was in accordance with a pre-election rotation agreement signed between the two factions making up the haredi party, whereby Lupolianski, a member of the Degel Hatorah faction of UTJ, would step down after one five-year term to allow a candidate from the other faction in the party, Agudat Yisrael, to run. Yet speculation about his intentions hasn't died down. Even before former Shas leader Aryeh Deri threw the haredi world into political turmoil this month by expressing interest in running in the November 11 race, there were lingering questions - eagerly promoted by Lupolianski acolytes - over how attractive a candidate Porush is to the non-haredi public. Many observers were describing Lupolianski as a "haredi-lite" candidate, while Porush, the third generation of a Jerusalem haredi political family, was seen a more "hard-core" haredi politician and less attractive to the non-haredi voter. Eager to burnish his public image, Porush has been trying to make inroads with the non-haredi public. This included placing advertisements in the secular media claiming he was good for all of Jerusalem. Since a third of the city's eligible voters are haredi, a haredi candidate seems to have an automatic advantage in the mayoral race - especially since haredim traditionally unite around one candidate and have a very high rate of voter turnout. But to win, a haredi candidate also needs some support among traditional and modern Orthodox voters as well. Even after Porush's candidacy was affirmed, there was continuing speculation that Lupolianski was eager for a second term. As a result, Porush supporters sought - and obtained - a letter from the mayor stating that he respects the decision of the party to select Porush as its mayoral candidate. Still, there are those in UTJ who apparently were having doubts. First, there were the public opinion polls showing that the secular Jerusalem opposition leader Nir Barkat, a self-made hi-tech millionaire who lost to Lupolianski five years ago, would handily defeat Porush in the race. The same polls also showed that Barkat, who has worked hard to secure the support of modern Orthodox voters with a hawkish political campaign against any division of Jerusalem, would turn the tables and defeat Lupolianski this time - but it would be a much tighter race. Then, earlier this month, after days of intense media speculation, Deri announced that he wanted to run, creating bitter turmoil within the haredi sector, which is typically united with one candidate. A Deri run is far from certain, however, since he has legal obstacles to overcome. But amid uncertainty over a Deri run and Porush's poor showing in the polls, Deputy Jerusalem Mayor Yehoshua Pollack of UTJ suggested Sunday that his party may replace Porush with Lupolianski if Porush's poll numbers don't go up. This is interesting, because Pollack has until now been a strong supporter of Porush, since both men are members of the same faction of the party. Pollack also insisted that Deri "cannot and will not" be the haredi candidate in the race, and that there will only be one haredi candidate. Asked for comment, a Porush spokesman insisted Sunday that Porush was in the race until the very end, and suggested that Pollack had been misunderstood. Later in the day, an unusually sheepish Pollack subsequently retracted his remarks about Porush, and said that he was, in fact, the party's candidate. For his part, Lupolianski declined last week to comment on a possible Deri run in the race, wishing all the candidates luck. But with three weeks left to declare his candidacy in the race, he may yet reconsider if the cards fall in place.