Analysis: Letting the neighbors know someone's home

The IDF is concerned terrorists will carry out major attack during Israel's political "twilight" period.

By HERB KEINON
Hamas 224.88 (photo credit: AP [file])
Hamas 224.88
(photo credit: AP [file])
Since July 30, when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced he would resign following the Kadima primaries, the IDF has been on heightened alert, concerned that someone out there - Hamas, Hizbullah or "others" - would try to take advantage of this "twilight" period in Israeli politics to carry out a major attack. According to this logic, Hamas or Hizbullah might be enticed into trying to pull something large off now, betting that the Israeli response would be more muted than usual because there was no one firmly in charge who could make the very difficult decisions, such as whether to send tanks rolling back into Gaza. That twilight period was just extended on Monday by another 90 days, and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert acted responsibly in not using his speech to the Knesset to promote any diplomatic agenda which he would be unable to see through to fruition, but rather to assure everyone that someone was remaining awake at the wheel. "While the members of our Legislature will soon put their parliamentary lives on hold for a fixed period of time in order to prepare for the elections, life in the State of Israel does not stop and the country's interests cannot be shelved," Olmert said. "There are still borders to secure and security challenges to address. The security threats against the citizens of Israel do not wait for the political processes. The fear of terrorism cannot be postponed just because some of us are engaged in an election campaign. Hamas's continued military buildup and the smuggling of weapons in the North and South do not stop just because we're in the middle of an election campaign. Iranian leaders do not sit still, but continue to threaten and prepare destructive weapons - even during an election period in Israel. To all those I highly recommend not to try our patience or put our ability to the test." Olmert's message was clear: There is still a very clear chain of command, and at least when it comes to security related issues, he was still in charge. That Olmert refrained from talking about any type of diplomatic initiative, or trying to push forward his vision of a near total withdrawal from the Golan Heights, east Jerusalem and the West Bank, is simply facing up to reality. There is no chance that as a caretaker prime minister Olmert could push forward any significant diplomatic initiative, if only because any diplomatic agreement would necessitate either a cabinet or Knesset approval, something he would not get. But even if there were still some who believed Olmert was still keen on pulling off some kind of grand diplomatic finale, it was doubtful any Arab leaders would engage him seriously, knowing that his shelf life was very limited, and he would soon be replaced by someone else. It is instructive that Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas reportedly postponed a meeting with Olmert on Monday, a meeting the Prime Minister's Office never confirmed, because - according to Palestinian sources - "Israel was currently preoccupied with internal matters." Which doesn't mean that Olmert will be without what to do for the next three or four months. Following a nearly three-week self-imposed hiatus, during which Olmert exited the stage to let Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni try to form a government, he now intends to return - as he made clear in his Knesset speech - to the day-to-day business of being prime minister. That includes keeping a watch on the rising financial flood, putting out fires like the threat of a university strike, and meeting visiting dignitaries. Olmert is schedule to meet Tuesday with Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader, and Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith. Another foreign minister, Denmark's Per Stig Moller is also scheduled to arrive Tuesday, and will meet Livni. More significantly, however, the chances are good that Olmert will - in the end - meet Abbas once or twice again before he leaves office, just to keep open the channels of communication. And the chances are equally good that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will come back to the region at least one more time following the November 4 US elections. But these meeting will be more maintenance than substance, a setting of the table for whoever follows: both in the US and in Israel.