Barkat's lead in Jerusalem won't count if he can't boost turnout

Polls show opposition leader ahead in November 11 mayoral race.

By ETGAR LEFKOVITS
barkat 224 88 (photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimksi )
barkat 224 88
(photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimksi )
The outcome of next month's Jerusalem mayoral elections is expected to be determined by the extent of voter turnout on election day, public opinion polls show. Jerusalem opposition leader Nir Barkat remains the front-runner in the November 11 race, with MK Meir Porush of the United Torah Judaism lagging a distant second in newspaper polls and billionaire tycoon Arkadi Gaydamak at the bottom of the barrel. But the polls - which tend to favor secular candidates and have been notoriously inaccurate in the past - also indicate that the race will be determined by the level of voter turnout among the secular and modern Orthodox public, who overwhelmingly favor Barkat but have previously stayed home on election day. Indeed, with one in every three voters being haredi, and near wall-to-wall haredi support for Porush (private and public grumblings notwithstanding) - Barkat needs a strong turnout in the non-haredi sector in order to win. In the last mayoral election, only a third of the secular and modern Orthodox voters cast a ballot, and Mayor Uri Lupolianski, who also received a not insignificant amount of the non-haredi vote, defeated Barkat by fewer than 20,000 votes. Although Porush is not as popular as Lupolianski was five years ago, the haredi camp is known for its well-oiled electioneering on election day; routinely busing thousands of haredim who live outside the city - but who still maintain Jerusalem addresses and are therefore eligible to vote - into the city on election day. This puts the onus on Barkat's campaign to produce similar results if he is to defeat the veteran haredi legislator. Barkat told The Jerusalem Post last month that he expects the turnout among the secular, traditional and modern Orthodox sectors - angered by city hall's handling of the repeatedly-delayed light rail project and concerned over the increasingly haredi makeup of Jerusalem - to be "the surprise of the elections." A Barkat campaign spokesman said this week that the campaign is working with young people including both high school and university students to get out the vote, and has been holding various public events to this end. The campaign has also urged students to register a Jerusalem address so that they can vote and worked to encourage former Jerusalemites still registered as city residents to come vote on election day. A Porush spokesman noted that he has set up four campaign headquarters and is putting out materials and doing media interviews to reach all sectors of the city. Both Barkat and Porush are also attending an array of public and private events in order to get out the vote. Meanwhile, in an unconventional step, Gaydamak has been actively courting the Arab voters in east Jerusalem - meeting their religious leaders and lunching with them even though nearly all of the 250,000 Arab residents of the city routinely boycott the elections since they do not recognize Israeli sovereignty over the city.