Israel-Syria Feelers Get Serious

By LESLIE SUSSER
An article in Issue 12, September 29, 2008 of The Jerusalem Report. To subscribe to The Jerusalem Report click here. After months of preliminary exchanges, including four indirect meetings under Turkish auspices, Israel-Syria peace feelers are moving into a decisive stage, a senior diplomatic source has told The Report. In early September Syrian President Bashar Asad declared that if Israel accepted a six-point outline he had sent via the Turks, direct talks on a peace deal could begin. An initial Israeli response is expected on September 18, when a fifth round of indirect talks in Turkey is scheduled to begin. The key Syrian question will be whether Israel is ready to withdraw from the Golan Heights to pre-1967 Six-Day War lines. Israel will want assurances on normalization of relations, security arrangements and, most importantly, on Syrian readiness to downgrade its close ties with Iran, the Lebanese-based Hizballah and Palestinian rejectionists. In an effort to alleviate some of these Israeli concerns, Asad says Lebanon could join the peace talks at a later stage. But even if the two sides find a mutually acceptable formula, direct talks are unlikely to begin until a new American president is installed in the White House in January and Syria receives clear signals that the new administration is ready to provide it with a hefty political and economic quid pro quo for breaking with Iran. Some previously skeptical international observers now believe the Syrians are seriously considering a change in their regional orientation. After a four-way summit in Damascus in early September, involving French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani and Asad, Sarkozy came away convinced that Asad is serious about peace with Israel and sent a message to Jerusalem to that effect. Israel, though, still has grave doubts about Syrian intentions. Israeli officials suspect Damascus might simply be using the peace talks to improve its standing in the West and to break the shackles of international isolation. For example, Sarkozy's visit, which probably would not have taken place had there been no peace talks, was the first by a Western leader since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri - for which the international community, including France, blamed Syria. "The Syrians want all the benefits that accrue from holding the talks, including improved relations with Europe, while continuing their active cooperation with Iran and its proxies. The message we are sending the Europeans and others is that this 'dancing at two weddings at the same time' is totally unacceptable," a senior official told The Report. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's aides acknowledge that Syria has been able to use the indirect public talks with Israel to make diplomatic gains, but counter that there have been major benefits for Israel, too. For the first time in years, they note, Israel enjoyed a quiet summer on its northern border without the threat of hostilities; secondly, the talks provide Asad with a very real opportunity to change Syria's regional orientation - a move that would constitute a major gain for Israel and the West. "Will he take it? We don't know yet. But ultimately the Syrians are going to have to make a strategic choice. And if they are serious, I can assure you, there will be a peace deal," the senior official said. An article in Issue 12, September 29, 2008 of The Jerusalem Report. To subscribe to The Jerusalem Report click here.