When the dust settles

The personalities and likely alliances in the new Kikar Safra.

By PEGGY CIDOR
Less than a week before the municipal elections, it's time to take a look at the lists and the forecasts and to survey what is awaiting the new tenants soon expected at Kikar Safra. "We are growing, with God's help," the representative of the Vizhnitz hassidim in the United Torah Judaism Party, Shlomo Rosenstein, said this week. UTJ currently holds nine city council seats and has two deputy mayors - Uri Maklev, who recently moved to the Knesset, and Yehoshua Pollack. Deputy Mayor Eli Simhayof (Shas) declared recently that "With God's help, Shas will certainly grow, perhaps even double." Shas now has five seats and two deputy mayors - Simhayof and Shlomo Attias. The National Religious Party, which has joined forces with the National Union, might increase its four seats (with one deputy mayor, Shmuel Shkedi) to five or even six seats, according to its internal polls. But there's more. The religious Zionist party is, for the first time in city council history, set to become the balance of power to form a coalition and is being courted by both leading candidates. Haredi MK Meir Porush promises he will open several new seminaries for religious Zionist women - "something haredim don't usually care for so much," said one of the NRP's advisers. The "crocheted kippa" sector, which forms the core of secular candidate Nir Barkat's inner circle of advisers and assistants, is also being romanced by Barkat. He didn't hesitate to wrap himself in a tallit at the Western Wall as he grasped the Four Species on Succot, never forgets to begin his speeches with a casual "with God's help," and keeps a Gemara on one of his bookshelves at his headquarters. One of the most intriguing issues that has arisen since last week is the Arab vote. While the warning by Arab leaders not to participate in what seems to be the ultimate recognition of Israeli sovereignty on Jerusalem is still de rigueur, large groups of residents have met the candidates and asked questions regarding their ability to fulfill their promises. At least in Arab eyes, some of the candidates seem (moderately) attractive. According to sources inside the headquarters of mayoral candidate Arkadi Gaydamak, the Russian billionaire - which is how he is introduced in Arab neighborhoods in the city - might put an end to the 40 years of the municipal election boycott and bring a dramatic 11th-hour change in the results. "For decades we haven't been able to persuade the Arab residents to vote," said a Meretz activist this week. "But it seems that Gaydamak has found a way into their hearts... and the possibility that their participation could turn all the forecasts on their head is becoming more realistic and disturbing." Gaydamak has gained wide support, perhaps because for many east Jerusalem Arabs, his position as an "outsider" in Israeli eyes makes him more of a kindred spirit. Gaydamak is not alone. Porush has also been meeting with businessmen and personages from east Jerusalem communities, who "didn't promise to vote for him but nevertheless sounded very interested," declared Porush spokesman Gil Peled in a press release. Earlier this week, more than 80 people went to the Novotel Hotel to meet Porush, who calmly announced that despite his daily prayers to see the Temple rebuilt, it would not prevent him, once elected, from ensuring that Arab residents get the same rights and services in the city. The presence of activist Meir Margalit (against the destruction of homes) and Pepe Allalu (in favor of the immediate building of classrooms in the Arab neighborhoods) turns the Meretz party into a very attractive one for Arab residents. "It's all true, but we don't know how far this new wind will blow on election day," says Margalit. Adds Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information co-director Gershon Baskin, "Forty years of living beside us, the Israelis, and what they see in the Palestinian Authority has turned the Arab residents of the city into the most pragmatic citizens. They understand that this is perhaps their last chance to keep a foothold in the city, so it might very well be reflected in the ballots." As for coalitions, for the moment both leading candidates - Porush and Barkat - are vague but do not dismiss, in principle, the idea of the largest possible coalition on the city council in order to "work together for the benefit of the city and its residents." Each is apparently counting on the fact that he will be the winner who will invite to loser to join. On that issue, there is one important clarification: Dan Birron of the Green Leaf party has announced that he will remain on the city council if he loses the mayoral elections. Porush refused to make such a commitment. Barkat has already remained on the city council since the last election as leader of the opposition. What Gaydamak will do in such a situation is not clear.