Israel vs. Iran and/or Hezbollah

Due to their pursuit of unconventional weaponry, Israel could face war with Iran or Hezbollah.

By EHUD EILAM
Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah 311 (R) (photo credit: Reuters)
Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah 311 (R)
(photo credit: Reuters)
Israel knows that two of its chief foes, Hezbollah and Iran, are seeking unconventional weaponry. Iran is trying to produce nuclear weapons and Hezbollah is striving to acquire Syria’s chemical weapons.
An Israeli attempt to prevent such acquisitions could lead to widespread regional conflict. If Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear infrastructure it will likely lead to a war with Iran in which Hezbollah – a close ally of Iran – might retaliate against Israel. If Israel tries to stop Hezbollah's transfer of chemical weapons from Syria into Lebanon it could ignite a showdown between Israel and Hezbollah.
Iran could get involved as well. A conflict between Israel and Hezbollah would provide Iran with an opportunity to divert international attention from both the civil war in Syria – an important Iranian ally – and the Iranian nuclear project.
However, Iran might not want to give Israel a political opportunity to bomb Iranian nuclear sites. Hezbollah has up to 80,000 missiles and rockets. Some of them cover almost every spot in Israel. Iran and Hezbollah have collaborated to create several sites – mostly within southern Lebanon – from which they can launch rockets and missiles into Israel. However, due to these sites close proximity with Israel, Hezbollah could be exposed to several Israeli weapon systems – such as gunships and tanks – that Hezbollah does not possess.
If a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah does erupt, Israel’s main goal would be to destroy Hezbollah's rockets and missiles – which are located throughout Lebanon, including inside houses. It might take weeks of fighting for Israel to find and destroy all of those sites.
Iran could retaliate against Israel with or without Hezbollah. In contrast to Hezbollah, which is a non-state organization, Iran has a vast conventional military; 32 divisions with hundreds of armored vehicles. Yet, due to the distance between Israel and Iran, Iran could only use planes and long range surface-to-surface missiles against Israel.
Iran's air force has around 220 combat air-crafts in service. The Iranian pilots might find it very difficult not only to fly all the way to Israel and back, but more importantly, to overcome the formidable Israeli Air Force. Israel could send about 100 planes to attack the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
If Iran responds immediately – before the Israeli planes return home – Israel will be on high alert and ready to intercept any Iranian planes trying to penetrate the country. Israel will confront Iranian air-crafts with at least 250 advanced F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, along with anti air-crafts such as the Patriot missile defense battery.
However, since Iran could lose planes during an Israeli attack, Iran might decide to keep the rest of its planes for defensive purposes in case of another Israeli bombardment. Iran has long range surface-to-surface missiles, but only 450 of them have the sufficient range to reach Israel. Most of them are the Shahab 3 missiles and they have only 10 launchers – which limits the Iranian ability to throw heavy barrages on Israel. Furthermore, some of those launchers might not be operational.  Iranian missiles could also be intercepted by Israel’s Arrow missile defense system.
Due to their relentless pursuit of unconventional weaponry, Israel could face war with Iran or the Hezbollah at any time. While a collision with Iran would likely consist of an all aerial campaign, a conflict with Hezbollah would be fought both in the air and on the ground. Either way, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could lead to heavy casualties and damages on both sides.
The writer is an analyst of Israel's national security, contributor and US representative of the Israel defense magazine, and a visiting fellow at JINSA.