Obama military expansion in Gulf misfires

President Obama must have an appropriate strategy for ensuring peace and stability in the Gulf.

By TIMOTHY SPANGLER
US President Obama wins Nobel Prize in Oslo 370 (photo credit: REUTERS/POOL New)
US President Obama wins Nobel Prize in Oslo 370
(photo credit: REUTERS/POOL New)
The gunfire that erupted in the Persian Gulf this week may have long-term consequences for US President Barack Obama’s more assertive military strategy in the region. Off the coast of Dubai, the USS Rappahannock opened fire on what local authorities are describing as a small fishing boat.  One man on the boast was reportedly killed, three were wounded.
The Persian Gulf is one of the busiest waterways in the world and a key transport link for oil. In response to increased international opposition to its nuclear development program,  Iran has repeatedly threatened to close off the Straits of Hormuz – thereby putting a stranglehold on one-fifth of the world’s oil shipments.
In an attempt to check Tehran, President Obama recently made the controversial decision to increase the US Navy’s presence in the region and, by doing so, take an increasing share of responsibility for policing the Gulf.
The American fuel supply ship opened fire on the Indian fishing boat with its 50 caliber machine guns when it failed to respond to warnings to stop approaching.  According to established Navy procedures, after several warnings, lethal force was authorized.  In the past, small motor boats operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRG) have made high speed passes of American ships.  In 2008, former US president George W. Bush declared it a “provocative act” when five Iranian boats passed by the USS Hopper in a threatening manner.
Just 15 kilometers off the coast of Dubai’s port city of Jebel Ali when attacked, the fishing boat was just nine meters long and equipped with only three outboard engines.  Dubai is part of the oil rich and strategically important United Arab Emirates – which has been a strong and consistent ally of the US in recent years.  American ships and sailors regularly visit the port at Jebel Ali.
An investigation into the attack was announced by the 5th Fleet stationed in nearby Bahrain.  Dubai officials are also reportedly investigating the incident.
As concerns for a potentially wider conflict around the Gulf continues to increase, how should Washington respond?
Earlier this month, the Obama administration announced that it was imposing additional sanctions on Iran prohibiting Iranian oil tankers from docking in many international ports.  As a result, Iranian oil distribution could contract as much as 60 percent.
However, sanctions are only one part of the picture.
Despite concerns that the US presence could unbalance the region, another carrier strike group, headed by the USS John C. Stennis, has been ordered to join the US naval presence in the Gulf – four months ahead of schedule.  The strike group will include a guided missile cruiser and four guided missile destroyers, and will join the USS Enterprise – which is already patrolling the Gulf.  Leon Panetta, US Defense Secretary, had announced the Obama administration’s commitment to a “two carrier” strategy in the Gulf just days before the unfortunate incident last Sunday.
With tensions escalating, it is imperative that President Obama ensures that the situation in the Gulf does not flare up into open conflict.  
Meanwhile, the Obama administration is engaged in a full-blown charm offensive in Israel. US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton visited Jerusalem this week, with Panetta following shortly thereafter. Tom Donilon, Obama’s national security adviser, beat Clinton to the punch by conducting his own secret visit to Israel days before her arrival.
Obviously it is important to ensure that Israel, a long-standing US ally, is receiving the security guarantees that it needs to promote US foreign policy in the region.  Yet, some question whether the charm offensive has more to do with addressing political concerns in November, than with the immediate challenges that the US faces in the Gulf, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Iran is scrambling to adjust its rhetoric to better fit a rapidly changing world in which its position as the world’s fifth largest oil supplier is providing it with fewer and fewer benefits.  With domestic reform stifled, Iranians have no choice but to watch their civil and religious leaders attempt to threaten and bamboozle the world into allowing it to get its way – despite the potential consequences.
For example, Iranian government officials are repeatedly boasting of the hundreds of technological advancements they are reverse-engineering from US' failed RG-170 drone that was shot down over Iran last year.  This audacious rhetoric gives Tehran further verbal ammunition to berate Obama with in an election year.
The Iranian capacity to block the Straits of Hormuz is real. The US needs to be prepared to address these potential developments.  However, no matter how legitimate the threats are, President Obama must understand that increasing American presence in this volatile region will only escalate regional tensions.
US foreign policy in this region must not be undermined by grand gestures made in the months leading up to a tight re-election campaign.
Instead of showcasing the US' increasing regional strength, President Obama must demonstrate  a nuanced and appropriate strategy for ensuring peace and stability in the Gulf.
The writer is a commentator who divides his time between the United Kingdom and Southern California. He has appeared on CNN, CNBC, BBC and Sky News, and has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Financial Times and the Economist.


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