There will be (more) blood

The bloodshed in Syria is about to lead to the climax of the Arab Spring.

By
November 28, 2011 16:10
Pro-Assad Syrian protesters

Pro-Assad Syrian protesters 311 (R). (photo credit: REUTERS/Sana/Handout)

 
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With the pace of slaughter in Syria on the rise, Turkey and the Arab League have separately attempted to broker a ceasefire in order to stop the regime's merciless crackdown on protesters. Unfortunately, it is time to realize that all such efforts are doomed to fail. The volatile elements at work in Syria make it highly likely that we are about to witness more than just the most explosive — and bloodiest — revolution since the Arab Spring began: We are probably about to see one of the more virulent civil wars the Middle East has ever known.

The core of the problem is that Syria is dominated by the Alawites, a sect whose theology is a heterodox off-shoot of Islam and whose adherents were traditionally at the bottom of the country's socio-economic totem pole. As is often the case with such disenfranchised groups, Alawites found that military service gave them a ladder to move up that totem pole, eventually leading to their overrepresentation in the military.

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