Anything can still happen between now and election day, from miracles to catastrophes
By AMOTZ ASA-EL3110-middle(photo credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)Dear Bibi,
Three years after Ariel Sharon maneuvered you to the political margins, you are back in the saddle, apparently half-a-winter away from a comeback second only to Sharon's.
Then again, your two decades in politics have taught you that by Election Day pretty much anything can happen, from catastrophes to miracles; you therefore can't afford complacency. To win, here are several tips you may want to consider.
Talk economics
People here always assume the public doesn't care for economics. That's nonsense. Most voters care greatly about the economy, but our politicians - and the spin doctors they hire - seldom understand money and therefore avoid discussing it. You understand economics well, and now also have a golden opportunity to celebrate the results of what you did as finance minister.
People should know that when you entered the Treasury we had negative growth, 11 percent unemployment and a teetering shekel, and that following your reforms ours emerged as the developed world's fastest-growing economy, while unemployment was nearly halved and the shekel became the world's strongest currency.
Yes, when you slashed social spending, accelerated privatization, raised the pension age, de-unionized the pension funds, capped fiscal spending, limited public-sector hiring and imposed competition on the seaports, there was a whole neo-socialist assault on you, but the public was actually impressed. Indeed, your reforms had nothing to do with your electoral defeat in 2003; that was because of the appeal of the Peres-Sharon ticket, which now seems like prehistory.
What is happening now speaks volumes in praise of your reforms, which, coupled with Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer's monetary heroics, are obviously the cause of our economy's containment, so far, of the carnage that has been rattling the global economy.
Surely, Fischer must be kept out of this campaign, but you still can, and should, take kudos for having appointed him. Who knows who would have ended up installed there had it been up to Olmert and his original finance minister. And who knows how Icelandic our situation would have become had we had Labor's original candidate for treasurer, Amir Peretz, in the position.
Now, as our banking system, currency, stock exchange and labor markets look so much better than Europe's and America's, you should discuss economics ad nauseam. On this front, you have nothing to fear and plenty to celebrate.
Moreover, the economy offers you an opportunity to drive a wedge between Labor and Kadima. Let Ehud Barak be dragged leftward by Shelly Yacimovich, Meretz and Histadrut Chairman Ofer Eini; they will all be making fools of themselves. At the same time, praise Livni for her refusal to drastically undo your social cutbacks. Say she owes you her first political position, as head of the Government Companies Authority in 1996. On this front, you can say, she was your student.
Talk about conviction
Barak's and Livni's main common denominator is their refusal to take a stand on hardly anything.
Unlike you, they haven't spoken publicly and elaborately about things like education reform, land reform or taxation. You can corner them and force them to respond to your statements. Their cowardly silence offers you an opportunity to set the campaign's agenda. You can say: "Voters may like or dislike my ideas, but no one can say I don't have any; I speak them openly, and when given a chance I also deliver on them. That's what I did as finance minister, and that is also what I did concerning the Gaza pullout. I had convictions and I followed them. What are your ideas, Ehud and Tzipi? What do you believe in, what have you fought for in your public careers and what have you ever delivered your own voters, let alone the rest of us?"
Confront Shas
Your problem will be the populist axis formed by Shas and your party colleague and nemesis Silvan Shalom. Here you will have to display consistency, apologize for nothing and say out loud that you indeed see things differently, as you do not believe in handing out cash to the weak, but in helping them earn it gainfully. This is the argument now being made genuinely and convincingly by Livni's Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On, and if you won't adopt it, they will use it to snatch the middle class away from you.
Moreover, Shas is not your ally but your rival. Practically all its votes once were Likud, and you must perceive them as a strategic target. Then again, you won't win them over by out-Shasing Shas. Don't play the populist you are not. Instead, come to them in good faith, explain what you did and demonstrate to them how it worked so far, and will work even better in the future. They will get it. Some of them will actually vote for you, and those who will still vote Shas will do so not because of its populism but because of their reverence for Rabbi Ovadia Yosef's saintly aura, one aspect of the situation on which you just can't win as long as he is still around.
Use Lebanon II
The recent war is a fresh memory, but your rivals will try to suppress it, for well-known reasons. You will want to remind the public that it happened and sounded alarm bells we cannot afford to ignore. Lead from there to systemic conclusions. Say it's not just that we had the wrong people in all the key positions, it's that entire agencies proved as decadent as the bomb shelters they had neglected and as helpless as the unsupplied citizens who were trapped within them.
Then proceed to discuss broader reforms. In questioning Amir Peretz's appointment as defense minister, you should conclude that Israel must separate the branches, so that cabinets are compact, cohesive and disciplined and ministers don't get to their positions regardless of their abilities.
Similarly, you must come out in support of electoral reform. If you tell people that the political system's ineptitude and corruption stem from legislators being mainly selected rather than elected, they will listen to you and follow your lead.
Be humble
Your opponents have many flaws, but you can't discuss those. Leave that for others. For your part, talk of a struggle that demands enlistment, volunteerism and dedication and cannot be assumed won until it is over; talk of rivals whom you respect but with whom you must disagree; and talk of a country that in the past may have had leaders who were greater than all of the current candidates put together, but right now can use the ideas, experience and conviction that no one can deny you bring, and no one can claim your opponents possess.
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