How Iran may retaliate after Israeli strikes - analysis
After years of boasting and talking about its air defenses and capabilities, the Iranian regime has been shown to be unable to defend Iran’s airspace.
Iran suffered a serious blow from the Israeli airstrikes on Friday. For Tehran, there is the public humiliation that it is vulnerable to these attacks.
After years of boasting and talking about its air defenses and capabilities, the Iranian regime was unable to defend its airspace. In addition, it wasn’t able to defend key individuals in Tehran, as photos on social media show that buildings appear to have been struck.
Iran’s nuclear program is scattered across the country in numerous sites, and the regime now has to be concerned about protecting them.
As Tehran contemplates its options, it will have to weigh how to respond. Iran has many options, and it has often threatened that its response could target US and other interests in the region.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US was not involved. Iran may take this at face value, but it could also choose to lash out.
Proxy attacks
Iran has many proxies in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Its other proxies include Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.These groups have been weakened since the October 7 massacre. Hezbollah is much weaker than in the past.Even though they are weaker, however, the Iranian proxies continue to pose a threat.
Iraqi militias have access to long-range attack drones. They have also reportedly received ballistic missiles from Iran over the past seven years. This means they can carry out attacks targeting Israel, as they have done in the past.The Houthis also have ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones.
The proxies can also be mobilized to attack what Iran perceives as Israeli allies. They could attack US forces or also target the autonomous Kurdistan Region in Iraq.
The proxies extend Tehran’s options across the region. They also enable Iran access to networks abroad. Hezbollah, for instance, has networks that extend to South America and West Africa.
Ballistic missiles and drones
Iran has used ballistic missiles and drones in attacks in the past against Israel. It used hundreds of drones and missiles in attacks last year.
The missiles have the capability to reach Israel, and they have become more precise over the years. Tehran has sought to extend the range and abilities of these missiles.
Iran has also improved the abilities of its long-range drones. These are called kamikaze drones.
The drones carry a warhead and can be preprogrammed with a long flight path. They are also relatively precise.Iran has exported its Shahed 136 drones to Russia for use in attacks against Ukraine. This has enabled Tehran to also work with foreign countries to improve the drones.
Iran has a large number of missiles of varying types, including solid and liquid fuel. Some of them can be deployed quickly, while others take time.
They can also be used in secretive ways by placing them in shipping containers or other methods to conceal them before use. Iran could move these systems to Iraq, using its proxies, to target Israel.Syria has prevented Iran from moving missiles to its territory.
Iran’s naval and ‘asymmetric’ threats
Iran has a conventional navy as well as it Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ navy.Its conventional navy has a large number of ships, but it is not very large.
The IRGC navy consists of smaller vessels and fast boats that do not have a long range. In some cases they can be deployed from a mother ship that may operate at a longer range.
Iran puts drones, missiles, and other systems on its ships. It has also been able to use ships in the past to conduct attacks on shipping, such as mining ships, or using drones to target commercial shipping.
Tehran could decide to use its navy to either attack ships in the Persian Gulf or the Gulf of Oman, or to attack ships using drones. It could also encourage the Houthis in Yemen to conduct similar attacks. Iran and the Houthis have done this in the past.
Since a large amount of the world’s shipping passes near the Gulf, and the oil and energy trade is located near Iran, Tehran has many soft targets of opportunity. It could target ships it claims are linked to Israel, or create a shipping crisis to encourage countries to pressure Israel.
Iran also has other types of what could be termed “asymmetric” threats. This means using terrorist groups or commercial ships to deploy Iranian drones or missiles or special forces.
It has operated a shadow war against Israel for many years, and Iran has partners and allies in Lebanon and Yemen, creating an arc of landscape stretching thousands of miles across the region.
Foreign terrorist plots
Tehran could also try to retaliate via plots in third countries. In the past, Iran has sought to target Israel or Israelis in numerous countries around the world. This has included plots in Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, South America, Europe, and Asia.Iran has several decades of experience conducting foreign terrorist operations. This has included murdering dissidents in Europe or working with Hezbollah around the world to spread terrorism.
Iran continues to have access to networks of terrorists around the world. Hezbollah also has these networks. While Iran has lost out on some of its power in the Middle East, it continues to enjoy support and access to networks on the ground in many places.
This includes in Iraq, where Iran has groups such as Kataib Hezbollah. These groups have targeted US bases in Iraq in the past and also targeted the Kurdistan Region.
Iran’s conventional army
Iran has an army, air force, and navy. However, it has generally starved its conventional army of resources. It doesn’t have a very large air force or navy.
Iran has also been under sanctions. This means it could not acquire modern warplanes or naval ships. Tehran preferred to invest in missiles, drones, and other capabilities.
Iran has an army, but its army is not likely something it would use to respond because of the long distance between Iran and Israel.
Israel’s capabilities to detect any kind of movement by Iran’s conventional forces means that Iran is at a disadvantage using these units. Nevertheless, it could use them in the Persian Gulf or to target US bases in Iraq, for instance.
Iran’s diplomatic power
Iran has invested heavily in diplomacy in recent years. It has worked on closer ties with Russia and China. It has strong ties with Pakistan and decent ties with India. It has joined economic blocs such as BRICS and the SCO.As such, Tehran is well positioned to use diplomacy against Israel. Iran has better ties with the Gulf than in the past, and it also has close ties with Turkey and Qatar, which are US allies.
Iran’s foreign minister has traveled frequently in the region and was in Oslo last Wednesday. This means Iran is well placed to try to play the victim and leverage the Israeli attacks in international forums for its own benefit.Iran may use this as an excuse to show it needs more air-defense systems from China or Russia.
