Iraq’s new chapter: UNAMI’s exit and the battle for sovereignty - opinion

The US invaded Iraq in 2003 to overthrow Saddam Hussein’s regime. When the fighting was over, the UN established the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). It was created at the request of Iraq’s interim governing council to support the country’s reconstruction and political development. Later, UNAMI’s role was expanded to embrace a constitutional review, regional dialogue, and human rights. 

At the end of this year, UNAMI will be closed down. In May 2024, the Iraqi government petitioned the Security Council to terminate its operations, citing the significant progress Iraq had made in political stability and governance. Iraq, said Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, had advanced beyond the need for continuous outside support. As a result, the Security Council unanimously agreed that the mission would end on December 31, 2025.

Today, both politically and economically, Iraq is relatively stable. The government has been in office since October 2022, and the large-scale anti-government protests that rocked Iraq in 2019–2021 have died down. All the same, an undercurrent of public discontent rumbles on, based on poor services, youth unemployment, and corruption in high places.

Geographically, Iraq lies cheek-by-jowl with its much larger neighbor to the east, Iran, along a 1,600 km. border. Ever since 2003, Iran has exerted substantial influence across many aspects of Iraq’s economic, political, and social life. Recently, this influence has been meeting increasing resistance.

Iraq imports a significant portion of its electricity and gas from Iran, and Iranian-backed businesses and financial institutions have a strong presence in the country. Iran supports various Shi’ite political factions and paramilitary groups and, through them, has, in the past, exercised considerable influence on Iraqi politics, including appointments, security policies, and parliamentary votes.

A major cause of tension within Iraq’s body politic involves disagreements between the state and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Iraq’s 2005 constitution recognizes the Kurdistan Region as a federal, semi-autonomous entity with its own parliament, president, and security forces. The region has the right to manage its natural resources, but disputes over sharing its oil revenues have persisted.

The oil ministry says that the KRG’s failure to comply with the law has hurt public revenues and has forced the government to cut output from other fields to meet OPEC quotas.

Iran starts new chapter with Syria

Significantly, that conference was attended by the interim president of Iraq’s “new” neighbor to the northwest, the post-Assad regime Syria. The invitation was extended to Ahmed al-Sharaa by Iraq’s Sudani, when they met in Doha in April.

The Iraqi government’s initial response to the overthrow of the Assad regime was cautious. It closed border crossings and deployed troops to the 630-km. border with Syria. There has been a slow shift toward a more pragmatic approach. Iraq has been sending officials on formal visits to Syria, virtually acknowledging the legitimacy of the new regime.

Iran-affiliates in Iraq, all of them Shi’ite, have opposed this, as well as any normalization with post-Assad Syria or its Sunni interim president. Over 50 members of the Iraqi parliament signed a petition to reject Sharaa’s attendance at the Baghdad summit, while the leaders of militia groups active in Syria, until recently, posted direct threats to Sharaa on their social media.

Writing on the Atlantic Council’s website on June 4, Iraqi international relations analyst Shermine Serbest said: “At this turning point in the region’s history, Iraq has a rare opportunity to start a new chapter with Syria… Opening effective channels of communication between the Iraqi and Syrian governments will be critical in efforts to stabilize and normalize… 

“Iraq should also work closely with the new Syrian regime to establish a high-level security cooperation, including immediate investments in border crossings and towns, to prevent the resurgence of extremist groups and smuggling activities across the joint border…Baghdad should continue to identify economic opportunities and solidify them with memoranda of understanding, trade agreements, and investment deals…

“Over the past 13 years, Iraq’s role in Syria has been marked by hardship and complexity. Now, the current Iraqi administration holds the opportunity to turn a new page and help shape a future defined by peace and regional cooperation.”

Upcoming elections in Iraq

Under Iraq’s constitution, the country’s president is not elected by popular mandate but by a vote in the parliament. The most recent presidential poll occurred on October 13, 2022, resulting in the election of Abdul Latif Rashid for a four-year term. Consequently, the next presidential election is expected to take place in 2026, following the formation of a new parliament.

The wild card in Iraq’s electoral process is the enormously influential figure of Muqtada al-Sadr, paradoxically both a Shi’ite cleric and a strong anti-Iran nationalist. His Sadrist movement won 73 seats in the 2021 elections – far more than any other party – but in June 2022 he ordered all 73 members of his bloc to resign amid a political impasse over government formation. This effectively removed his movement from the legislative arena, and they have not returned since.

As a result, a three-party Iran-aligned coalition, the Coordination Framework, has exercised most political influence in the parliament. In what appears a somewhat perverse decision, Sadr has announced that his movement will boycott the upcoming November elections, citing concerns over corruption and foreign influence. He may yet change his mind.

The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com