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Grain futures - weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

Published 05/11/2014, 09:23 AM
Updated 05/11/2014, 09:23 AM
U.S. corn futures fall sharply after bearish USDA report

Investing.com - U.S. corn futures fell sharply to move off a 10-month peak on Friday, after the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast higher-than-expected domestic supplies this year.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, U.S. corn for July delivery tumbled 1.74%, or 9.0 cents, on Friday to close the week at $5.0740 a bushel. Prices hit $5.2260 a bushel ahead of the release of the USDA report, the most since July 24.

In its closely watched monthly report on supply and demand, the USDA said that U.S. farmers will harvest 13.935 billion bushels of corn this year, slightly higher than last year's record crop of 13.925 billion.

U.S. corn stockpiles will rise to 1.726 billion bushels before the harvest in 2015, the most since 2006 and up from 1.146 billion forecast this year.

The USDA also projected that global corn inventories will total 181.73 million tonnes in the 2014-15 marketing year, up 7.9% from the current marketing year and the most since 2000.

Despite Friday’s losses, the July corn contract rose 1.57%, or 8.0 cents on the week amid ongoing concerns over crop and weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest.

Meanwhile, U.S. wheat for July delivery tumbled 1.73%, or 12.6 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $7.0820 a bushel, after the USDA projected higher global supplies than analysts had expected.

The USDA said global wheat inventories will total 187.4 million metric tons in the 2014-15 season starting June 1, up 0.5% from 186.5 million in the current marketing year.

Despite Friday’s sharp decline, the July wheat contract still ended the week with a gain of 1.96%, or 14.2 cents, the fourth straight weekly advance amid fears over dismal crop conditions in the U.S. Great Plains region.

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Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, U.S. soybeans for July delivery rallied 1.19%, or 17.4 cents, on Friday to settle the week at $14.8700 a bushel after the USDA said stockpiles before this fall's harvest will be smaller than expected.

U.S. inventories on August 31 will total 130 million bushels, below expectations for 134 million and down from a previous estimate of 135 million.

The agency also said that U.S. soybean production in the 2014-15 season will total 3.635 billion bushels, an all-time high and up from 3.289 billion a year earlier.

On the week, the July soybean contract rose 1.1%, or 16.4 cents, the first weekly advance in three weeks.

In the week ahead, market players will focus on the release of key USDA data, including crop progress and weekly export sales figures.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, followed by soybeans, government figures show. Wheat was fourth, behind hay.

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