On May 11, 2013, only minutes before the deadline, a surprise candidate registered to stand in the Iranian presidential elections due to be held on June 14. The current incumbent – the controversial Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – has served his statutory two terms, although whether he was in fact entitled to his second period in office remains a matter of intense speculation both in and out of Iran. The 2009 presidential vote was accompanied by claims of electoral fraud on a massive scale: Ahmadinejad won 63 percent of the vote, as opposed to the 37 percent garnered by his main rival. On election day, Efat Marashi, the wife of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, called on the public to take to the streets if the vote was rigged. And indeed, on the day of Ahmadinejad’s inauguration, there were widespread street demonstrations. Hundreds of riot police confronted opposition protesters outside parliament and elsewhere in Tehran. Responding to the allegations of vote-rigging, the US, the UK, France and Germany refrained from sending the re-elected president the usual letters of congratulation.The street protests continued well beyond inauguration day, and on July 17, 2009 some 1.5 million worshippers turned out for a particular Friday prayer, during which the speaker called for national reconciliation, the release of political prisoners and freedom of the press.The speaker that Friday was Rafsanjani, who had served as Iranian president from 1989 until 1997. And it is Rafsanjani who has now declared himself a candidate in the elections.Rafsanjani and his wife have proven themselves to be thorns in the side of the ruling Iranian elite in general, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in particular. But Rafsanjani is too powerful, and with too great a popular following, to be entirely crushed. So instead the government has taken to harrying him. Senior members of his Executives of Construction Party, including Hossein Marashi, Mrs Rafsanjani's cousin, were detained after the election. His daughter was arrested during the street protests and later sentenced to six months in jail on charges of spreading propaganda against the Islamic Republic. His official website was blocked by the Iranian judiciary for refusing to remove the transcript of his now famous Friday sermon. The Iranian constitution requires the election of a new president, and Rafsanjani’s entry into the contest radically alters what was previously seen as a contest between rival conservative groups. Not that Rafsanjani currently is more than a relative moderate – currently because in his time he has zigzagged sharply across Iran’s political spectrum, and relatively moderate because, although he now favors a domestic free market, privatization of state-owned industries, and a moderate position internationally, he is still sought by Argentina for ordering the 1994 Buenos Aires Jewish center bombing that left 85 people dead. Rafsanjani, moreover, still supports Iran’s nuclear program, although he has indicated that he would be much more flexible than Ahmadinejad in negotiating with the UN, the US and the West about its future.Rafsanjani’s chances of winning the elections depend on a variety of factors. His age (78) might possibly count against him, but then again he is in good health. Given his status in Iranian society, the fact that more than 400 other candidates have thrown their hats into the ring may not be as daunting as at first glance: Rafsanjani is still a leader to be reckoned with in Iran. It is, perhaps, significant that he did say some time ago that, in a desire to avoid conflict and dispute, he would not enter the field without the consent of Ayatollah Khamenei. It is therefore possible that a last-minute agreement with the Supreme Leader may have opened the way for his registration.If however he did not come to such an agreement before the vote, the vast field of candidates does give the Supreme Leader and his immediate supporters in the higher echelons of government the opportunity to throw their weight behind another candidate – as they did for Ahmadinejad, prior to his success in his second presidential election. For example, there is Saeed Jalili, a hardline conservative who is seen as close to Khamenei. Jalili has been leading Iran’s team in its as-yet fruitless negotiations with world powers over its nuclear program."Rafsanjani is above all a pragmatist, a problem solver. He looks for ways to get things done,” says Professor Shaul Bakhash, a leading expert in Iranian studies at George Mason University in Virginia. “As president, if Khamenei allows him, I think he would move quickly to hold direct negotiations with the US, zero in on getting sanctions lifted, considerably moderate Iran's foreign policy rhetoric and take steps to create conditions for foreign investment.”An intriguing prospect. The election and its outcome are only a few weeks away. We shall learn soon enough whether Iran is to be set on a new path – and whether it will be Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who leads the way.The writer is the author of “One Year in the History of Israel and Palestine” (2011) and writes the blog “A Mid-East Journal” (www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com)
