In recent weeks, numerous reports have surfaced claiming Western powers now have credible evidence that forces loyal to Syrian dictator Bashar Assad have used chemical weapons against their opponents in the country’s bitter civil war. According to Western intelligence agencies, the use of chemical agents has occurred in several parts of the country over recent months. This has led to increased pressure on the Obama administration to take military action against the Assad regime, since Washington had warned the use of chemical weapons would be a “game changer” which would trigger a heavy American response.And yet, by press time, US President Barack Obama had remained extremely cautious about entering the Syrian fray, insisting that he first wants irrefutable proof that the Assad regime indeed ordered the use of chemical agents.Meanwhile, Israel has been watching developments across its northern border very closely, while repeatedly warning about its own “red line” – which is the transfer of chemical weapons or advanced munitions to Hezbollah or other radical Islamist militias. But unlike the US, Israel has trusted its intelligence and acted swiftly in recent weeks to strike at a weapons research factory and two convoys of advanced missiles headed for Hezbollah.So just how credible is the evidence that Assad’s forces have used chemical agents on the rebel militias fighting for his ouster? How did Syria learn to develop chemical weapons? And what sort of response can we now expect from Washington and Jerusalem? For answers to these and other questions, The Jerusalem Post Christian Edition recently turned to Dr. Mordechai Kedar, who spent 25 years in the IDF’s military intelligence branch and today is a lecturer with the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv.Jerusalem Post Christian Edition: There are serious reports out of Syria that the Assad regime has used chemical weapons on rebel forces and civilians. How much stock do you place in these reports? Dr. Mordechai Kedar: We do have hard evidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical agents which caused severe damage to human beings and even deaths. I have no idea exactly what they used, maybe a nerve gas or something else. But it definitely involved various symptoms that acted as if the people were exposed to chemical weapons.And this is not just based on videos that have been posted on the Internet, but various doctors have also reported in detail about treating people for symptoms of chemical exposure? Yes, definitely! I also believe that there was some success in smuggling out materials, like blood and saliva of people who were exposed and from some of those already dead. And if the rebels succeeded to get the hard evidence and smuggled it out, this can be proof of the usage of chemical weapons.The British initially put out a report of a chemical attack but they said they wouldn’t do anything about it. Does Israel have its own evidence? Based on my own experience, the information that Israel and other countries in the world have is shared by the Western intelligence agencies. It could be that there are differences in interpreting the data, but the data in most cases is shared, especially when it comes to the Middle East. There is a high level of cooperation between the intelligence organizations about the information.From your time in IDF intelligence, can you tell us a little about the origins of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal, the extent of it, what types of gas, and how much they have? The first to develop the ‘unpleasant things’ in Syria were the Germans. They found refuge in Syria after the Second World War.You are talking about fugitive Nazi officers and scientists who knew how to mix these ingredients? Right! They were part of the missile development program in Syria already in the 1950s. And I believe that they also had some kind of activity related to Syria’s chemical and maybe biological weapons development. Those people are not alive anymore, but this is what I believe was there...The first steps that Syria took were with former Nazis that found asylum in Syria. Later, the cooperation was with the Soviet Union, where many Syrians went to Russia and other states of the former Soviet Union, or Soviet pact nations, places like Czechoslovakia, East Germany and Hungary, and there they had a connection with chemical weapons know-how.After that, in the beginning of the 1990s we saw experts who ran away from the collapsing Soviet Union, those experts and engineers and scientists found new jobs in Iran and in Syria. Also in parallel, we saw activity of people from North Korea supporting the Syrians in all kinds of production of things that were not allowed, especially in this regard.It’s very chilling to know that the Syrian chemical weapons program has Nazi and Soviet origins. When you talk about the sarin or VX gas or the other gases that Syria has, they were all developed first by the Nazis in the 1930s? I’m not so sure that the Soviet line of production wasn’t also developed by Germans or ex-Nazis.Israel has spoken of a ‘red line’ concerning the use or handling of these chemical weapons in Syria, that if they fall in the wrong hands, like Hezbollah or some of the al- Qaida jihadist militias, Israel would have to take action. The US has a bit of a different red line. Can you give us a better understanding of the difference between the two? The proximity of Israel to the situation in Syria makes the difference. Here, Israel cannot allow Hezbollah, which is deeply invested in Syria, to come out from Syria with chemical weapons or missiles and other weapons which can change the balance in the area in favor of the terrorists. We have sources of intelligence concerning convoys of vehicles carrying advanced weapons that Israel cannot tolerate heading for Hezbollah.They were headed for the Bekaa Valley, across the border in Lebanon? Yes! And even though I don’t know what was in these convoys, I do believe that there are enough Israelis who knew about this and got the permission of the prime minister to deal with it.It must have been serious shipments of weapons.Israel also allegedly did some things to a nuclear facility in Syria a few years ago, but nothing came of that because the Assad regime decided not to retaliate. I think the ability of the Syrian regime to retaliate against any attack is rather limited. They are much more concerned about their own survival, before they start hitting targets in Israel or in Turkey or in other places.However, I think that when they see that they have nothing left to lose, they may act totally irrational and unpredictable and may want to ‘go out with a bang’ – like Samson in the Book of Judges who said: ‘Let my soul die with all these Philistines.’ And it could be that this kind of mindset will take over in the Assad regime.There was this same sort of fear with Saddam Hussein in Iraq, that if he was about to go down he would fire chemical-tipped Scuds at Israel and try to take many Israelis with him. But the Iraq invasion seems to have left the US very cautious. The Obama administration says if Syria is using chemical weapons it’s a ‘game changer,’ yet they’re not being aggressive about pursuing this.They are cautious because of the criticism, no doubt. But it is well known that Iraq did have chemical weapons until the war came in 2003. Yet a few days before the war, he smuggled everything to Syria. There are many sources and even photos of these weapons leaving and crossing over the border into Syria.It seems one Israeli concern about the possible use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war is that if the US and the West don’t do anything about it, this will send a wrong message, a wrong signal to Iran about its nuclear program.Yes, this might encourage Iran to take bigger steps, and in many ways the ruler of North Korea acts the same way. Why should these regimes care when they can get away with breaking international law without any consequences? What does Israel want or expect from the international community now that there is evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Syria? First, to realize that Israel is not alone in this boat. Somebody that can attack Israel can also attack Turkey or Europe, because the distances are not an obstacle. Nobody will be immune if those chemical weapons are taken from Syrian hands and given to terrorists.Secondly, Israel already learned its lesson in Lebanon. We invaded to change the situation and to create a new Lebanon in 1982, but we failed. It is very hard to design a state according to our measurements. It is better not to try to change things in the Middle East. The US didn’t learn it yet, invading Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, thinking that those people want democracy just like in the West.Here in this region, people are much more loyal to their tribe or ethnic group that they are born into or to their own religious group, much more than they are loyal to their modern states, which were largely a creation of European colonial powers... These are not individualistic societies, like we have in the West, when it comes to personal rights and freedoms. There are only a few stable states in the Middle East and they are in the Emirates. They are stable because the whole state is one single ethnic tribe or religious group. The only way to gain stability in Arab states now torn by civil war is to divide that state into homogeneous regions, each ruled by a single tribe or ethnic or sectarian group, to create autonomous areas.Syria right now is certainly fractured along ethnic and sectarian lines. How do you see this situation playing out? Is the use of chemical weapons going to hasten Assad’s downfall? Will there be an international intervention? According to some media reports, the Americans are preparing an air campaign on the Syrian regime because of the evidence that he used chemical weapons. First of all, that is good for the Syrian people. Secondly, it is good for American credibility, because a threat is one thing but when it becomes credible it gains attention.So we probably won’t need boots on the ground, just air strikes? Yes, just like in Libya... and allow me to make one more point. The Christians in the Middle East are running away, from places like Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon. Everyone here is afraid of the future of the Middle East, that the Islamists are taking over every state one-by-one. Also in the Palestinian Authority, there are big problems for the Christians. And I think the Christian world should set aside their differences and unite to protect the embattled Christians here!
