Mali, for most Israelis, is far, far away, and the dramatic events unfolding
there do not really have much of an impact on life here – especially in the heat
of an election campaign.
With Likud Beytenu throwing mud at Bayit Yehudi,
and former foreign minister Tzipi Livni trashing Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich,
who has time to follow reports of the bold French intervention in Mali to stem
Islamic jihadists from taking over the northern part of that country in western
Africa? And yet we should take note, and not only because keeping al-Qaida
affiliates from gaining a base anywhere on the globe is in Israel’s interests,
as it is in the interest of the rest of the world. We should take note because
the French activity there – fighting Muslims in another far-flung corner of the
globe – will likely give Paris yet another reason, yet more motivation, to push
hard on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
The French, now facing real
threats from Islamic radicals to extract vengeance on their nationals wherever
they are because of the Mali operation, will want to prove their bona fides;
they will want to show the Islamic world that they have nothing against Muslims.
And what better way for Paris to show the Muslim world that it really has
nothing against it – that it is only fighting radical Islamic global jihadists –
than to champion the Palestinian cause.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
would do well to brace for a French-led, full-court press for a resumption of the
diplomatic process after the elections. And that will likely lead to placing
significant heat on Israel.
Already last week French President François
Hollande was quoted by Ma’ariv as saying that a French Middle East peace initiative,
aimed at bringing Israel and the Palestinians to the negotiating table, is
expected after Tuesday’s elections.
AFP further reported that Hollande
said a continued freeze in peace talks could lead to harsh repercussions from
Europe.
“If the stagnation we saw in the last four years continues, their
[Europe’s] dealings with anything pertaining to settlements will intensify,” he
was quoted as saying, suggesting that the EU might ban entry to “extremist
settlers.”
“Europe got used to imposing sanctions and knows how it’s
done,” he was quoted as saying. “If there is a political desire to impose
sanctions on Israeli elements, the mechanisms are already in
place.”
Perhaps as a foretaste of what is in store, Paris took the lead
Thursday in slamming Israel for issuing tenders to build some 200 new housing
units in Efrat and Kiryat Arba, developments it had already blasted in early
December, soon after Jerusalem announced plans to build some 3,000 units in the
capital and the settlement blocs as part of its response to the Palestinian’s
successful upgrade at the UN General Assembly.
Even though Netanyahu is
in the thick of an election campaign, he took heed of the voices coming from
Paris and called Hollande last week. After praising the French president for his
decision to take action in Mali, Netanyahu threw in a thinly veiled
jab.
“You took a brave step against extremist Islamic terrorism,”
Netanyahu said, according to a readout of the call provided by the Prime
Minister’s Office.
“In my meetings with African leaders I learned how
much it threatens the future of the continent.
While there are countries
for which the threat of terrorism is thousands of kilometers away from the homes
of their citizens, we in Israel are familiar with the threat of global terrorism
from up close. For us it is only a few hundred meters away from our
homes.”
Netanyahu’s message was clear: “You are flying thousands of
kilometers from Paris to take commendable military action because you think the
terrorism in Mali can be used as a springboard against France and Europe. We are
facing those threats a few hundred meters from our home, so don’t push us to
take security risks – to withdraw from territory – that could bring Islamic
radicals onto our very doorstep.”
Nevertheless, when the Mali adventure
is over, Hollande is likely to come under domestic pressure to take a more
assertive role vis-à-vis Israel.
The argument will likely follow these
lines: “Paris dispatched French forces thousands of kilometers away and put
French life on the line to act in an African nation because Hollande said that
impacted on French security. So, too, the continuation of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the continued expansion of settlements, also
impacts France’s security.”
According to this argument, the Palestinian-
Israeli conflict feeds Islamic radicalism that is upsetting and further
destabilizing the Middle East; and a destabilized Middle East threatens the
security of France and Europe. As such, Hollande will be under pressure by those
saying that just as he took action in Mali to secure French interests, he must
do the same – albeit through diplomatic means and with measures which are
obviously dramatically different than what he used in Mali – with
Israel.
In other words, don’t be surprised if France hands Israel part of
its Mali bill. •