Israel’s decision to become an active partner with Cyprus on issues of natural
gas – despite the island nation’s unsolved political disputes with Turkey – has
left Ankara “disturbed” by its ally, according to a Turkish
expert.
“Turkey feels a little bit disturbed,” Prof. Mitat Celikpala of
Kadir Has University in Istanbul told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday. “Not
betrayed, not put aside, but a little bit disturbed from all those happenings.
What we want is to solve the Cyprus issue first, and then we cooperate. There is
no question mark.”
While Celikpala said he understands that Israel, like
every country, has its own economic and trade interests, as a “partner and ally
of Turkey,” it behooves the state to work together with its northern
neighbor.
Celikpala spoke with the Post on the sidelines of a conference
titled “Natural Gas in the Eastern Mediterranean: Casus Belli or Chance for
Regional Cooperation?” held Thursday at the Institute for National Security
Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, where he was a speaker. The conference – which took
a comprehensive look at the legal, geopolitical and regional cooperation
implications of the region’s natural gas finds – was organized jointly by the
INSS, Israeli-European Policy Network, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Academic
Foundation, Universität der Bundeswhr Munchen and the Macro Center for Political
Economics.
Experts and conference attendees included representatives from
around the world, including Israel, Turkey, EU states, the US, Canada and
others, and notably, the ambassadors from Cyprus, Austria and
Belgium.
Israel’s decision to partner with Cyprus on natural gas
exploration could potentially place further strain on the already tense but
“important” relations between Turkey and Israel, Celikpala told the
Post.
“Cyprus is an issue for Turkey, a political one,” he said. “The
European Union membership of Cyprus, the Greek Cypriots, sort of blew Turkey’s
policies. It stopped and restricted Turkey’s options. “ Turkey, at the moment,
does not immediately need the energy resources found in the Eastern
Mediterranean as it has plenty of its own, so Ankara would first like to find a
solution to the Cyprus political issue, according to Celikpala. An independent,
Greek Cypriot government is the island’s recognized EU member, but a Northern
Cypriot population associates itself with Turkey.
“It is natural for
Israel to have its own resources and produce all those resources,” Celikpala
said. “But establishing security relations by making energy cooperation a basis
between Israel and Cyprus is a threat for Turkey.”
'Violation of sea border could be cause for war under UN convention'
The United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) was signed in 1982 by 162
countries, a convention from which both the US and Israel abstained, explained
Prof. Daniel Erasmus Khan, of the Universität der Bundeswhr Munchen. UNCLOS
defines the rights and commitments of countries to use and maintain the sea, and
restricts the number of nautical miles from the shore that belong to each
relevant seaside nation. Through the UN convention, escalation was resolved in a
natural resources dispute between Nigeria and Cameroon, as well as another
between Romania and Ukraine, Khan said.
Under UNCLOS, violations of sea
delimitations that have been signed and ratified by bordering countries could in
fact constitute a casus belli – something as bad as a land violation, according
to Khan.
“Tensions may suddenly erupt and arise when natural resources
come into play,” Khan said.
While Israel has abstained from ratifying the
convention, it largely abides by its rules and predominantly sees it as a
binding contract, said Sarah Weiss Ma’udi, of the International Law Department
at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Turkey, like Israel and the US, is
not a signatory member of UNCLOS, but largely subscribes to it, according to
Prof. Harry Tzimitras of Istanbul’s Bilgi University.
“Politically
speaking, because of instability in the area, Turkey wishes to have a foot and
thus has less of an incentive to delimit things,” Tzimitras said.
In
terms of agreeing on maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus and
Egypt agreed to the first one in 2003 – while Cyprus and Lebanon agreed to one
in 2007 but never ratified the agreement – and Cyprus and Israel signed and
ratified their agreement in 2010, Khan said. There is no mutually agreed upon
delimitation boundary between Israel and Lebanon, and it is difficult to imagine
one occurring in the future, he added.
“I’m not an optimist regarding
whether the wealth that’s in the seabed will actually be used for political
reconciliation,” said Dr. Rem Korteweg, of The Hague Center for Strategic
Studies in the Netherlands. “One of the fundamental problems I see is a tenacity
of zero-sum thinking regarding what to do with the gas finds.”
If all the
relevant countries have a rigid conceptualization of their sovereignty and are
not willing to bend at all, then the region will not get anywhere near achieving
regional cooperation, according to Tzimitras.
Veering back to Turkey and
its own rigid conceptualization of Cyprus’s status, Tzimitras explained that “it
is very clear that Turkey formally does not accept the right of the Republic of
Cyprus to represent in law or in fact, the whole island.” Turkish law holds that
Greek Cypriots cannot conduct explorations for gas on behalf of the entire
island, as this is viewed as a violation of Turkish Cypriot rights, he
said.
“Because the Cyprus issue has cost Turkey so much financially and
politically, it is about time to get something out of it in the sense of
hydrocarbons,” he said.
Tzimitras, however, was a bit more positive than
Celikpala about the effect that stronger Cypriot-Israeli relations would have on
Israel and Turkey’s relationship.
“I don’t think that the undercurrents
of Turkish-Israeli relations will suffer beyond that,” Tzimitras told the Post
after the conference. “I’m hoping that it’s a temporary setback.”
'Syria, Iran issues could force J'lem, Ankara back together'
“I
don’t think it’s going to affect the deep underlying strategic relationship,
especially if developments in Syria go in a way that will create a strategic
need for a revamping of the relationship between Israel and Turkey,” he added.
“I think that eventually logic will prevail, and they will go back to what they
had already. It was working.”
Celikpala, too, said he felt that the
regional problems with Syria and Iran might force the two now tense countries
back together.
Marveling at the energy finds in the region, INSS director
Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Amos Yadlin reminisced about studying geography during his
childhood.
“One of the maps I do remember is the map of the energy
sources,” Yadlin said. “And the energy sources in Middle East were unfortunately
concentrated much to the east, to the Gulf area – Iran, Iraq, the
UAE.”
“If there are maps like that, I think the good news is that the
energy is moving west, to countries that never had this wealth of energy
resources,” Yadlin added. “Countries that never understood this gift of gold are
starting to cope with a challenge.” Such challenges can have profound political
implications on the countries who discover the resources, as well as their
neighbors, according to Yadlin.
“Conflicts can erupt around the issue but
on the other hand it can bring regional cooperation among countries,” he said.