The bottom line is that inevitably Jordan's minority dictatorship will be swept aside and the majority will have their Palestinian state in what is currently called Jordan.
By DAVID MARGOLESEThe bridge crossing near the border with Jordan.(photo credit: REUTERS)
As the country conducts one of its largest non-war military operations ever in search of her three young kidnapped boys, I find myself considering the fact that Israel supports the existence of the Palestinian Authority. These kidnappings and acts of terror for the most part would not be able to happen without the PA. And still, Israel supports the PA both militarily and economically, as a precursor to a Palestinian state.Yet the more I consider the idea of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, the more apparent it is that this is an absurd concept with no possibility of success. Even if the Palestinians wanted such a state, which luckily for Israel, they don't, the inevitable outcome is plain as day. Imagine we create a Palestinian state in the West Bank. And then imagine the day the minority dictatorship in Jordan falls -- and all minority dictatorships throughout history eventually do fall. The former state of Jordan, now re-named Palestine, would naturally absorb the tiny entity called Palestine which Israel created on this side of the border. We would then face an overwhelming military threat sitting virtually on top of Tel Aviv.Israel would obviously not want such a merger of these two Palestines, but there would be no practical way to prevent it other than dismantling and taking over the state we created in the West Bank. And what right would we have to prevent it? After all, the Palestinians on both sides of the river are the same people.That's if Jordan's king falls from within. But there are other forces stalking him. Behold Syria and Iraq today. These religious Islamic armies are not going to stop there. Jordan is in the center of the perfect storm. It borders both Iraq and Syria, has the right brand of Islam (Sunni), has a minority dictator who remains clinging to power solely due to U.S. economic and military aid, and is next on the Islamist's stated agenda.An Islamic takeover of Jordan (which would again be re-named Palestine) would force Israel to return to the Jordan Valley to defend both itself and any baby state of Palestine created on Israel's side of the border.The bottom line is that inevitably Jordan's minority dictatorship will be swept aside and the majority will have their Palestinian state in what is currently called Jordan. And that alone renders the feasibility of a second Palestinian state moot.We are therefore always going to be responsible for the Jordan Valley border.We can never abandon the Jordan Valley any more than we can abandon the Golan (imagine if we had done that in exchange for peace with Syria). And this means there will never be a Palestinian state this side of the West Bank. If there is, we will be forced to take it back, as sooner or later there certainly will be a Palestinian state one on the other side.And so we will end up annexing the West Bank. And what of the ever-threatened demographics that will plunge Israel into a bi-national state? According to the Begin Sadat Center For Strategic Affairs, West Bank Palestinian population figures and birth rates have been overstated by the Palestinian Authority for obvious reasons, and absorption with Israeli citizenship of its Palestinian population is viable.It's not like there will be any problem dismantling the PA. They will cease to exist the moment we stop propping them up militarily. And it's not like the Palestinian population don't want Israeli citizenship. They envy their wealthy Israeli Arab cousins' benefits, stability, and lifestyles.There will be fear mongering, hand wringing, doomsday prophesying and much angst over international reaction, but in the end we will annex the West Bank.The writer is the co-founder and former CEO of Sirius XM Radio, America's largest radio broadcaster. Nominated by Harvard Business School as Entrepreneur of the Year, and inducted into NASA's Space Technology Hall of Fame, he now lives in Israel with his wife and family.
