Iran aims to start a reactor next year which the West fears could arm an
atomic bomb. Israel, which has bombed such construction sites around
the Middle East before, may try to stop the plant being completed.
timetable for the planned start-up of the Arak heavy-water research
plant is closely watched. Israeli and Western experts say any attacker
would probably prefer to act before it becomes operational - to avoid
generating radioactive fallout.
The Islamic Republic says it will
make isotopes for medical and agricultural use. But analysts say this
type of facility can also produce plutonium for weapons if the spent
fuel is reprocessed - something Iran says it has no intention of doing.
Time may be pressing for adversaries who want to act.
considers attacking an active reactor is willing to invite another
Chernobyl," former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin said,
referring to the 1986 Soviet reactor accident which sent radioactive
dust across much of Europe.
"And there is no one who wants to do that."
who runs Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies,
was among eight pilots who in 1981 bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor. Still
under construction, Israel believed nuclear fuel was about to be loaded
and decided to hit it then, avoiding a risk of sending fallout over
Further underlining Israel's determination to
prevent its enemies from acquiring the means to assemble nuclear bombs,
it attacked a site in Syria in 2007 that the United States said was a
reactor being built with North Korean help. Syria denied that.
widely assumed to be the Middle East's only nuclear-armed state, now
sees Iran's purportedly civil nuclear program as the most serious risk
to it and has threatened military action if diplomacy and sanctions fail
to make Tehran hold back.
Western and Israeli worries about Iran
are focused largely on uranium enrichment plants buried underground at
Natanz and Fordow, as such material refined to a high level can provide
the fissile core of an atomic bomb.
But diplomats and experts say Arak could offer Iran a second route to nuclear bombs, if it decided to build such arms.
concern about that plutonium route and the Arak site has got much
stronger," said a Western diplomat in Vienna, where the UN nuclear
agency is based. "I think it is another red line," added the envoy, who
is not from one of the big powers.
It was a reference to a "red
line" for Iran set by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in September,
when he told the United Nations that Tehran must not be allowed to amass
an amount of medium-enriched uranium that could, if refined further in a
relatively uncomplicated process, make even a single bomb.
has since kept its medium-enriched uranium stockpile below that point by
converting some of it to make reactor fuel, in effect postponing any
deadline for Israeli military action.
Strategic Affairs and
Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said Arak was "definitely a
concern" but Iran's uranium enrichment track was still a "far more
Iran says its nuclear work is a bid to generate
electricity and also to make progress in other areas of scientific
research. It denies accusations it is seeking to develop atomic weapons.
Fitzpatrick, director of the non-proliferation and disarmament program
of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said Arak
would potentially be able to produce one bomb's worth of weapons-grade
plutonium a year.
It would thus, he said, be "one of the key
targets if there is ever a decision by Iran's adversaries to employ
military force against the nuclear program."
But Cliff Kupchan,
Middle East analyst at consultancy Eurasia Group, said it would be
politically difficult to strike a site that is monitored by inspectors
from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear
"My instinct is that ... Israeli triggers would relate
more directly to intelligence that Iran is building or seeks" the
capability to reprocess atomic fuel, Kupchan said.
Iran says it does not have any reprocessing activities - which would be required to obtain plutonium from reactor fuel.
already has one reactor, at the Bushehr power station on the Gulf, but
Western governments do not see that as a military risk since it is of a
type less suited to generating plutonium; Russia helped build the plant,
begun under the US-backed Shah in the 1970s, and also insists on taking
back the spent fuel.