The final lists

A reader’s guide to all the major contenders for the votes of the electorate and their chances of success come March 17.

By LESLIE SUSSER
Supreme Court Judge Salim Joubran (photo credit: screenshot)
Supreme Court Judge Salim Joubran
(photo credit: screenshot)
RIGHT UP to the late January deadline for submitting final party lists for the March 17 election, the country was abuzz with rumors of possible eleventh hour game-changing political mergers.
Initially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had sought a grand alliance between his ruling Likud party and Naftali Bennett’s national religious Bayit Yehudi – which would have guaranteed them around 37-40 Knesset seats and a potentially decisive election lead over the rival Yitzhak Herzog-Tzipi Livni led Mahane Tzioni, now known as the Zionist Union.
Bennett was more than interested. But in both cases party colleagues tied the leaders’ hands.
Senior Likudniks whispered that it would limit Netanyahu’s coalition building choices and leave him with a far-right/Haredi administration that would further complicate Israel’s already vulnerable international standing.
After the Bennett option fell through, Netanyahu approached Moshe Kahlon’s centrist Koolanu, offering Kahlon the Finance Ministry and eight of the first 20 spots on the combined list. This would have guaranteed Netanyahu over 30 Knesset seats and railroaded Kahlon into supporting him and not Herzog as his candidate for prime minister.
Kahlon, who left the Likud over deep differences with Netanyahu, said no.
For their part, the Zionist Union and Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid contemplated the possibility of an electoral pact to counter Netanyahu-Bennett or Netanyahu-Kahlon, but only if Netanyahu moved first. The dovish Meretz was never in the merger stakes.
Zionist Union and Meretz leaders preferred separate tickets after polls showed both leaking votes if they ran together – Meretz to the left and small single-issue green and libertarian parties and the Zionist Union to the center-right.
The problem for them both though is that the Zionist Union’s perceived need to be the biggest party to get the president’s nod to form the next government is hurting Meretz.
Left-leaning voters who want to see Herzog not Netanyahu as prime minister will be tempted to vote directly for the Zionist Union. And should this lead to Meretz failing to pass the raised 3.25 percent election threshold, it would almost certainly cost the center-left the election.
In the end, the only eleventh hour merger to materialize was between former Shas leader Eli Yishai’s Haredi/national religious ultra-nationalistic Yahad and Michael Ben-Ari’s vituperatively anti- Arab Otzma Leyisrael. On the face of it, this was good news for Likud. Together the two radical right parties will probably pass the election threshold and back Netanyahu for prime minister. But there is no way he will be able to include selfproclaimed anti-Arab bigots like Otzma Leyisrael’s Baruch Marzel, fourth on the joint slate, in a Likud-led coalition.
Having missed his chance to do so through a substantial political merger, Netanyahu now hopes to improve his shaky electoral prospects by setting the political agenda, turning attention away from the socioeconomic to his stronger political and security suits.
The invitation he wangled from Republican House Speaker John Boehner to address both houses of the US Congress on the Iranian nuclear issue in early March, just weeks before the election, was clearly designed to highlight the Iranian threat and impress Israeli voters with verbal pyrotechnics and a succession of standing ovations.
But it could have a strong boomerang effect.
Organized behind President Barack Obama’s back, the invitation further undermines Netanyahu’s already frosty relations with the White House, the proper channel for effective Israeli input on Iran. The breach of protocol and disrespect it showed for the president irked legislators on both sides of the American political divide, hurting Israel’s standing on Capitol Hill.
It also reduced the chances of the new stiffer sanctions Netanyahu is pressing for being adopted soon. Following the invitation to Netanyahu, Senator Robert Menendez – one of a potentially vote-swinging group of Democratic legislators who favor stiffer sanctions – assured Obama that he would defer a vote on his new sanctions bill until after the March 24 deadline for a negotiated deal with Iran.
Worse for Netanyahu, the move could also bomb with Israeli voters. For one, critics argue that it shows an irresponsible readiness to sacrifice strategic ties with the US for electoral gain. Moreover, the affair has driven home the fact that if Netanyahu is reelected, Israel-US diplomatic ties will plummet to new lows at a time when Israel’s need for American support has never been greater. To punish a Netanyahu- led Israel, Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry may well allow a new UN Security Council resolution recognizing Palestinian statehood to pass. They may also feel less inclined to block Palestinian moves against Israel at the International Criminal Court.
All in all, 26 parties have submitted lists for election to the 20th Knesset. Of these 11 stand a good chance of passing the election threshold. The other 15 are in it mainly for the publicity. Following is a brief look at the tactics and prospects of the main protagonists:
LIKUD
 Campaign: The main thrust will b e a multi-pronged attack on the Zionist Union’s Zionist credentials and capacity for leadership. The principal message will be that Netanyahu has shown he can handle the threats Israel faces in a tough neighborhood, whereas Herzog and Livni are not up to the job.
Likud will also try to deflect widespread disaffection with the prime minister by accusing the media of not giving the right a fair shake. It will claim perceived economic achievements for itself and blame outgoing finance minister Yair Lapid for failures.
Weaknesses: Unlike in the last election in 2013, Netanyahu is seen as eminently replaceable. He also suffers from a long incumbency and a perceived failure to tackle key issues or make a palpable difference.
Exorbitant use of public funds by the Netanyahus in the running of the prime minister’s official residence in Jerusalem and second home in Caesarea could become a key election issue, especially if the state comptroller issues a critical report before election day. Sara Netanyahu’s alleged pocketing of deposits on recycled state-funded bottles and irregular funding of trips abroad when Netanyahu was finance minister (2003- 2005) could also play a role.
Projected seats according to an amalgam of current polls: 24
THE ZIONIST UNION
Campaign: It will claim the Zionist high ground and accuse the right of putting the Zionist project at risk by hurtling toward a Palestinian majority one-state solution and deepening Israel’s international isolation. It will insist that the level of Israel’s national security is dependent on regional alliances and American support, both areas in which Netanyahu is demonstrably weak. It will focus on the fact that during the past six years under Netanyahu prices have spiraled and argue that the prime minister has shown he is incapable of reversing the trend. It will cast the election as a straight choice between ongoing stalemate under Netanyahu or hope for meaningful change on all fronts. “It’s us or him,” the Herzog/Livni slogan will say.
The Zionist Union will get a tailwind from an unaffiliated group calling itself V15 (Victory 2015) and working with Jeremy Bird, a former Obama campaign field director, to bring about a change in government through saturation door-todoor canvassing. Likud insists that V15 is fronting for the Zionist Union in an illegal bid to circumvent strictures against foreign campaign funding. The Zionist Union denies any connection to V15 in which case its canvassing for change is perfectly legal. And it points to exponentially greater foreign funding for pro- Netanyahu PR through the Yisrael Hayom freebie newspaper funded by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.
Weaknesses: The Zionist Union still needs to convince on the leadership issue.
In an attempt to do so, it will highlight the strong leadership team around Herzog and Livni, and Herzog’s skill as a team leader. Likud will harp on Herzog’s evoking the right of silence when questioned by police over illegal funding of then Labor leader Ehud Barak’s 1999 election campaign and Livni’s frequent new party allegiances.
Projection: 25 seats
JEWISH HOME
Campaign: Much like Likud only more virulently, it will attack the Zionist Union’s Zionist credentials and the media.
It will strongly reject any possible compromise solution with the Palestinians and present Bennett as fresher, more direct and more credible than Netanyahu.
Weaknesses: The debate within the Jewish Home on whether it should be more inclusive, a kind of Likud B and potential party of power, or serve narrower national religious community interests and values, could cost it votes on both sides of the argument. Bennett’s failed attempt to place former national soccer star Eli Ohana – a secular Mizrahi celebrity and Likud-affiliated Betar Jerusalem icon likely to attract grass-roots Likudniks – in one of the reserved spots on the party’s Knesset slate could also prove costly. The initial move was seen as patronizing and manipulative and the mainly Ashkenazi party’s subsequent wall-to-wall rejection of Ohana as bordering on the racist. Designed to win votes from the Likud, it could end up leaking votes the other way.
Projection: 15 seats
YESH ATID Campaign: The campaign will target Netanyahu as a weak leader and Herzog as too close to the Haredim whom Yesh Atid wants to see serving in the IDF and joining the workforce. It will argue that during its brief spell in government it was brimful of reforms for the good of the middle class, but was stopped in midstream by Netanyahu’s election call.
“Give us a chance to complete what we started” will be the main campaign thrust. “It’s a fight for the kind of country Israel becomes,” they will say.
Weaknesses: Lapid’s perceived failure to meet the high expectations he created last time round.
Projection: 11 seats
KOOLANU
Campaign: Kahlon, who as communications minister smashed the cell phone cartel, claims he will be able to cut housing and other costs. He will accentuate the fact that he grew up poor and has innate empathy for the less well off.
Weaknesses: Kahlon is not a born leader and lacks charisma. The party campaign so far has failed to make an impact.
Projection: 8 seats
YISRAEL BEYTENU
Campaign: The mainly Russian immigrant party will present itself as anti- Arab, right-wing and pragmatic on the Palestinian issue, all at the same time, and party boss Avigdor Liberman as an out-of-the-box thinking strongman leader.
In an attempt to staunch a growing loss of support, Liberman dropped his initial coalition-options-open stand and declared that he would not join a left-led government. This could be enough to decide the election in Netanyahu’s favor.
Weaknesses: The corruption scandal involving high-level Yisrael Beytenu representatives and functionaries has gravely compromised the party’s electoral prospects. There is also a serious dearth of vote-catching candidates on the party list, following the retirement or firing of most of the old guard, the involvement of others in the corruption scandal and the reluctance of attractive candidates to join a tainted and possibly sinking ship. Only 25 percent of those who now support Yisrael Beytenu say they are sure to vote for it come election day, by far the lowest figure for any major party. Ironically, Yisrael Beytenu, the party that pushed hardest to raise the election threshold, mainly to keep Arab parties out of the Knesset, could be hoisted with its own petard.
Projection: 5 seats
MERETZ
Campaign: Meretz will argue that it is the only truly left-wing Zionist party. It insists that it will not join any Netanyahu- led coalition, and that it will take a strong Meretz to stop Herzog hooking up with Netanyahu should the prime minister win the election.
Weaknesses: The perceived need to vote for Herzog in order to oust Netanyahu could cost Meretz. And the withdrawal from political life of the openly gay Nitzan Horowitz could leak votes to Aleh Yarok, the cannabis legalizing party making a concerted effort to attract the gay vote.
Projection: 6 seats
UNITED TORAH JUDAISM
Campaign: The main campaign drive will be to bring out the Ashkenazi Haredi vote. This will be done largely through rabbinic injunction and emphasis of the party’s commitment to work against military service for yeshiva students.
Weaknesses: Inherent bickering between right-tending Agudat Yisrael and the more dovish Degel Hatorah, the two parties that make up the union. Degel Hatorah’s declared readiness to join a Herzog- led coalition could lead to a seepage of Chabad Greater Israel votes to Eli Yishai’s ultra-nationalistic and partly Haredi Yahad.
Projection: 7 seats
SHAS
Campaign: Shas will claim it is continuing the work of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, the party’s late founder and spiritual mentor, seeking power to preserve his heritage and vast education network. It will also fight Likud and Kahlon for the support of non-Haredi Sephardi blue-collar workers it dubs the “transparent” people the Likud and other parties don’t see.
Weaknesses: Former party leader Eli Yishai’s defection will cost Shas at least two or three seats. The fact that his successor, the charismatic Arye Deri served a two-year jail sentence for bribe-taking is unlikely to adversely affect the Shas vote. Video tapes showing Ovadia disparaging Deri led to his mock resignation and much hailed grass-roots unifying return.
Projection: 7 seats
YAHAD
Campaign: Yahad, e specially a fter i ts electoral pact with the anti-Arab Otzma Leyisrael, will turn to the Haredi, national religious and secular radical right. At the same time, Yishai will claim that he is the true guardian of Ovadia’s heritage.
If they pass the threshold, they could help decide the election in Netanyahu’s favor.
Weaknesses: Shas will portray Yishai as a traitor to the cause, putting Ovadia’s hard-won achievements at risk. Otzma Leyisrael’s militant anti-Arabism will deter some potential Haredi and national religious voters.
Projection: 0-4 seats
THE UNITED (ARAB) LIST
 Campaign: The main campaign message will be that united the Arab parties can better fight right-wing anti-Arab legislation, protect Arab minority rights, help advance a fair solution for the Palestinians and make a real difference to Arab life in Israel. The goal will be to build on the initial flush of excitement in the Arab sector over the unification move and bring out a significantly higher percentage of Arab voters. According to the pollsters, a 10 percent rise in the turnout could mean as many as 15 seats for the united list. This could help create a blocking majority against a Likud-led government.
Weakness: Deep ideological differences between the four parties comprising the list could generate vote-losing tensions.
Projection: 12 seats
Of the 15 small single-issue parties, three are of greater interest. Ubezchutan, an unprecedented list of Haredi women insisting on the right not only to vote but also to be elected, could take some women’s votes from the Haredi parties, especially Shas.
Aleh Yarok, a libertarian party fighting for the legalization of cannabis and appealing to the gay community, and the environmentalist Hayerukim (Greens) could both take crucial votes from Meretz.
If current voting patterns remain stable, the election outcome will depend on the two centrist parties, Yesh Atid and especially Koolanu. Historically this has been the case before. For example, in 1977 the Democratic Movement for Change took votes from the Labor party to put Likud’s Menachem Begin in power; in 1999, voters moved from Likud to Yitzhak Mordechai’s Center party, where they parked for a while before doing what until then had been the unthinkable for them – backing Ehud Barak and One Israel, his extended version of the Labor party.
This time, given current trends, Herzog, with the support of both Yesh Atid and Koolanu, would have a blocking majority, and probably get first chance to form the next government. But should Koolanu, led by a former Likudnik, together with the Haredi parties back Netanyahu, the tables would be turned.
Much could and probably will change by election day. But for now, the key to the composition of the next government seems to be in Moshe Kahlon’s hands.