The Sunni jihadist group in Lebanon that fired rockets at the North on Thursday
is the latest indication of al-Qaida-affiliated elements setting up shop near
Israel’s borders seeking to drag Israel into conflict to serve their
It’s not unreasonable to assume that those who fired the rockets would be pleased to create the conditions that would suck
the IDF into a conflict with Hezbollah. Their calculation could be that the
IDF’s immense firepower will weaken the Shi’ite organization, which rules
southern Lebanon and is involved neck-deep in the war against Sunni rebels in
A weakened Hezbollah would in turn cripple the murderous Assad
regime, and might shift the balance in favor of the Sunni rebels in
Some of the Sunni armed groups are part of a transnational
pro-al-Qaida network of jihadist fighters, which extends from Lebanon to Iraq.
Syria is acting as a production center for these groups, churning them out and
spreading their ideology and weapons to neighboring states. The result might be
a strengthened jihadist presence in the entire region.
In the Sinai
Peninsula to Israel’s south, terrorists sharing the same ideology as their
brethren in Syria fired a rocket at Eilat this month, probably in the hopes of
provoking an incident that would undermine the Israel- Egypt peace
In light of these factors, Israel will be looking to calibrate
its responses in such a way that does not serve the designs of jihadists, while
firmly safeguarding the security of its citizens.
This does not mean the
IDF will sit on the fence every time global jihadists fire a rocket at Israel.
For the past few years, the military has been perfecting its ability to swiftly
identify targets that appear and disappear beyond borders, and direct
devastating accurate firepower at them. Combined with the right intelligence,
these capabilities mean that the IDF is prepared to respond to the threats
developing to the north and south. There is no reason to believe that a lack of
response to one incident will be repeated the next time that rockets are
directed at Israelis, or when a cross-border assault is launched.
day in this chaotic region will create situations for decision-makers to respond