The nation’s population is on track to reach 11.4 million by 2035, with 4.7
million babies expected to be born in the next two-and-a-half decades, the
Central Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.
CBS published its
projections on ethnic and religious demographics, overall fertility rate, life
expectancy, and age demographics.
The intermediate projection estimates
that after slightly narrowing, the demographic balance between Jews and Arabs
will stabilize within the next few decades.
The Jewish population is
expected to grow to 8.3 million, or 73 percent of the total in 2035; the Arab
population is expected to grow to 2.6 million, or 23%; with members of other
groups comprising 500,000, or 4% of the population.
The CBS projects the
Muslim population will grow to 2.3 million, growing at a higher rate than the
Druse and Christian minorities. However, the Druse population is expected to
outstrip the Arab Christian population within the next few decades. CBS projects
a Druse population of 185,000 in 2035, and an Arab Christian population of
In addition, the CBS estimates that the overall fertility rate,
which measures the number of children born to the average woman, is expected to
decline modestly from 2.94 at present to 2.75 in 2035. The rate for Jews is
projected to increase from 2.99 to 3.04, while the rate for Muslims is projected
to decline from 3.37 to 2.71. Arab Christian and Druse fertility is projected to
hold roughly steady.
Despite the decline in the total fertility rate,
Israel is likely to remain exceptionally fertile.
Citing UN estimates,
the CBS estimates that the 2035 total fertility rate will hold steady above the
developed world’s average of 1.82, and will outstrip all neighboring Arab states
– the most fertile of which, Jordan, has a projected 2035 figure of
As a result of declining fertility, Israel’s annual population
growth rate by 2035 is projected to decline to 1.4% from the current rate of
1.9%. However, the sharper decline in immigration means that 94% of growth
between 2010 and 2035 will be the result of natural increase, as opposed to 89%
for the years 2006 to 2010.
Moreover, CBS projections suggest that
Israel’s already high life expectancy is set to increase across all sectors by
2035. In 22 years, the average Jewish female born in Israel may expect to live
89.5 years, as opposed to 86.3 for Arab females, 84.8 for Jewish males, and 81.6
for Arab males.
And while the CBS expects that 4.7 million Israelis will
be born between 2010 and 2035, the rise in life expectancy across all sectors
means that the Israel of 2035 will be a demographically older country than
today. The CBS estimates that by 2035, there will be 1.7 million Israelis aged
65 years and older, or 14.6% percent of the population. Israel is set to remain
young by comparison to the rest of the developed world, a quarter of whose
population will be 65 and older by 2035.