In November, we will know if there will be four more years in the White House
for the first African-American president, Barack Obama, or if the party of
George Bush Sr. and Jr. will succeed in propelling Mitt Romney into the Oval
According to recent polls, it seems that while Americans are
concerned with the economic situation, unemployment and healthcare costs, they
tend to believe, by a margin of 5 percent- 10%, that Obama rescued the American
economy after the historic crises of the 2008 recession.
By the same
margin, including in the important swing states such as Florida and Iowa,
Americans believe that Obama should be given a chance to complete his social and
economic agenda, and they support his foreign and security policies of putting
an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, while combatting terror.
is therefore to be believed that Obama will be reelected in November. While the
election campaign and agenda is mainly domestic, the United States between 2013
and 2017 will mainly have to contend with a dramatically changing world, which
also will affect the American economy and the country’s security.
Israelis we should ask ourselves what a second Obama term should look like in
the region and what our policy should be toward our main strategic ally. The
world of 2013 is in many ways very different than the world of 2009 when Obama’s
first term in office began.
The world has fundamentally changed as a
result of the technology and information revolutions.
Due to widespread
use of the Internet, which has become the main means of communication – 80%
usage in the US, 65% in Europe, 35% in the Middle East – the world is far more
connected than ever.
Individuals, especially the young generation, are
communicating on a daily basis on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, across all
corners of the globe.
They express values, experiences, cultural
characteristics, common agendas and aims and are creating value- and
interest-driven communities. The private sector is likewise using the Internet
to broaden its customer base. This has led to greater globalization on one side
and greater empowerment of the individual on the other. In the middle,
governments have become less relevant, governance has become much more difficult
and dictatorship virtually impossible. Modern communication and new media are
used effectively, both for positive change and for spreading hate and danger.
The world is no more merely a fragmented family of nations, but rather a
diversified mosaic of communities and individuals.
It is a world in need
of a new kind of leadership that can create an innovative interaction with
national and global constituencies and that can effect positive change with
them, especially the young generation. This is definitely true for the Middle
East. As we witnessed during the Arab Spring, the young of the Tahrir and
Jasmine revolutions brought down dictators and powerful armies. It is an ongoing
process, so far exploited by two forces: the Islamist parties (mostly linked to
the Muslim Brotherhood) and young students and liberals (less organized than the
Brothers, but a powerful force to be contended with).
particularly true for the most important Arab country, Egypt, with President
Mohamed Morsy completing the revolution by sidelining the army and facing the
most severe economic poverty and unemployment, with a young generation waiting
impatiently to reap the fruits of the revolution.
The other most
important challenges stem from the biggest and smallest regional powers: Iran
and Palestine. Iran of Ali Khamenei is stirring for regional hegemony of its
backward fundamental Islamist doctrine, through terror and the development of
nuclear weapons, despite growing disillusionment inside the country.
must be stopped and only the United States can achieve this strategic
Palestine, of a relatively secular West Bank and a Hamas Gaza
Strip, is yearning for statehood, and an end to Israeli occupation.
Palestinians deserve a state, a peaceful and democratic one living side by side
in security with Israel, and only through American leadership can this be
Therefore in the likely occurrence of a Barack Obama second
term, it is to be hoped for that Obama 2013-2017 will adopt policies to meet the
new challenges of a changing world and Middle Eastern region. The American
president, as the leader of the Free World, will have to be very attentive to
the fundamental changes in international relations.
It must be clear to
him that he cannot internationally dictate his will by force or unilateral
actions. To a large degree the world, and the Middle East for that matter, has
become a world of the people. Alliances with governments will not suffice, they
need to be legitimized by the people.
Here Obama still must come a long
way in order to create a regional discourse and dialogue with the region’s young
generation – 60% of its population – listening and respecting their value
systems and needs on one side and on the other making demands, mainly on
democratization and respect for human rights. Speeches at the UN or at
universities will not suffice; he must also connect on the innovative means of
communication – the social networks. The needs of the young in our region are
mostly related to socioeconomic interests, jobs, education, skill development,
hi-tech innovation and partnership with the international community. Obama needs
to understand that NATO alone or the Sixth Fleet are not sufficient to protect
American regional interests. An economic alliance between the G8 and the Middle
East is necessary, a kind of “economic NATO” to make international aid much more
adaptable to the needs of a young generation.
Barack Obama is indeed the
man for such a tall order. He is in many ways the first American “Facebook”
president, he understands the need to be attentive to the people, not just
Obama has a rare skill among important leaders – he
On the Iranian issue, which is the most important security
challenge to American strategic interests, Obama combines the needs of anti-Iran
international coalition- building vis-à-vis China and Russia with tough steps
against Tehran becoming a military nuclear power. Sanctions and boycotts have to
be made more potent and crippling, offers need to be made, a radio voice of the
people of Iran should be transmitted to support an internal opposition movement
and, as a last resort, a military option against Iran should not be ruled out. A
change of regime in Damascus will be conducive to the isolation of Tehran and
should be encouraged.
As a world leader Obama has shown the right
capacities for such a strong and somewhat complex strategy. He objects by
ideology to the proliferation of non-conventional weapons, he is tough when it
comes to fighting terror – see Osama bin Laden – he is a great believer in
multilateral diplomacy in a multi-polar world and, for us most important, he is
fully committed to the security of Israel and has brought defense relations
between the two countries to new heights.
On the Israeli-Palestinian
issue, Obama in his first term has failed to bring about direct negotiations or
the conditions necessary for progress toward a permanent-status solution. The
fact that the Israeli “pro-settlement” government and the Palestinian “pro- UN”
government were not helpful is an understatement.
Yet the American
president must and probably does understand that for all Arabs, and most
Muslims, the Palestinian issue is a core issue, maybe not strategically, but
certainly when it comes to the hearts and minds of the Arab constituency;
therefore substantial progress toward a two-state solution is critical to
American policy in the region. Obama II must, and probably will, have a
pro-active policy on the matter.
As for Israel, we need to prepare
ourselves and our policies for such a likely eventuality, despite the Republican
preferences of Binyamin Netanyahu and his friend Sheldon Adelson. This means
being ready to be part of an American-led coalition on Iran, as courageously
proposed by President Shimon Peres, and being fully coordinated with Washington,
as of now, on its Middle East policy, including regarding realistic positions on
the Palestinian issue.
Obama’s campaign slogan for 2012 is “Forward.” and
it seems that forward he may move. In 2008 it was “Yes We Can,” but in 2013, in
a changed world, he must prove that indeed he can.
The writer is
president of the Peres Center for Peace and served as Israel’s chief negotiator
for the Oslo Accords.