The U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in Tehran did not just shake the military and political arenas. Within minutes of the first reports of explosions, unusual activity was recorded in Iran's crypto market, suggesting real-time economic panic.
According to blockchain intelligence firm Elliptic, withdrawals from the Iranian crypto exchange Nobitex jumped more than 700%, reaching over $500,000 within minutes. Later that day, withdrawals of nearly $3 million were recorded within a single hour.
Capital Flight or Momentary Fear?
Elliptic believes this is likely capital flight, with users transferring funds to foreign exchanges to bypass the global banking system and sanctions. Elliptic says, a significant portion of the funds was directed to platforms outside Iran, allowing capital to move quickly and without traditional banking oversight.
However, not everyone agrees with this interpretation. TRM Labs claims that this is not an acceleration in activity, but rather an overall slowdown caused by the regime's response. Shortly after the events began, it was reported that internet connectivity in Iran dropped by approximately 99% due to deliberate shutdowns. In other words, even those who wanted to withdraw money simply could not.
The data indeed shows that after the initial spike, withdrawal volumes sharply declined.
A Key Player in the Local Arena
The significance of the data is particularly high because Nobitex is not a minor player. It is the largest crypto exchange in the country, responsible for approximately 87% of local trading volume. In 2025, it processed around $7.2 billion in trades and served over 11 million users.
In a country suffering from prolonged sanctions, a fragile banking system, and instances of private bank collapses, crypto has become a way for millions of citizens to preserve value and move funds. Last October, Ayandeh Bank collapsed after accumulating losses exceeding $5 billion, an event that affected more than 42 million customers and deepened distrust in the financial system.
In such a reality, any security shock almost automatically translates into crypto activity.
Bitcoin Rises
Alongside the drama in Iran, the global crypto market experienced sharp volatility. Following a steep decline over the weekend amid the escalation, the subsequent recovery continued into the week. Yesterday during trading, Bitcoin surged back to around $69,000, a rise of more than 6% in a single day, after previously touching lower levels amid prior uncertainty.
This movement illustrates once again Bitcoin's duality in times of crisis. On one hand, it is a risky asset that reacts quickly to war headlines. On the other hand, for some investors it is still seen as a kind of alternative to the traditional financial system, especially when banks close or local currencies are under pressure.
The derivatives market also recorded an increase in trading volumes, indicating that short-term traders entered the market and attempted to capitalize on the volatility.