Some 300,000 mostly Shi’ite Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah have been evacuated from at least 50 southern Lebanese villages as of Wednesday due to IDF counterattacks following Hezbollah firing rockets at Israel on Monday.
This is creating tremendous pressure on Hezbollah since those people are a large part of its constituency, the IDF reported. Most of them still have not received reparations for homes they lost during the 2023-2024 conflict between the Lebanese terrorist group and Israel.
They have been evacuated as the IDF has launched 250 attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon since Monday, including about 100 on Tuesday.
While the volume of attacks is still far below the 1,300 attacks in a single day that the IDF carried out in September 2024, it is far above the volume of much more limited attacks the IDF has undertaken since the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire.
Typically, since the ceasefire, the IDF would only launch a few attacks each week, mainly at limited low-level targets in southern Lebanon or elsewhere in Lebanon, where not too many Hezbollah operatives would be killed, and where top Hezbollah officials were not targeted.
IDF kills several top Hezbollah officials
In contrast, the IDF has killed several senior Hezbollah officials since Monday, and it has made clear that Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem – who replaced Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine in the fall of 2024 after they were both assassinated – is in its crosshairs.
So far, Hezbollah has not killed an Israeli, and it has caused minimal damage.
Hezbollah’s main attack was overnight between Sunday and Monday, when it fired rockets at the northern border towns and as far as the Haifa area.
Since then, Hezbollah has launched much more sporadic rocket and drone attacks. Nevertheless, its multiple rounds of attacks on Wednesday set off many air-raid sirens, and it sometimes seemed to be coordinated with Iranian missile salvos.
The Hezbollah rocket launcher that had fired on Haifa was destroyed at 8:08 p.m. on Tuesday, the IDF reported.
On Tuesday, the IDF said it had slightly expanded its security zone in southern Lebanon, adding to the five positions it has held there since the November 2024 ceasefire.
IDF Northern Command said it likely would not initiate a larger ground invasion into Lebanon until the situation with Iran was calmer, if at all.
By Wednesday night, the 91st Division had expanded Israel’s security zone in the eastern portion of southern Lebanon, the 210th Division had expanded its presence in the Mount Dov area, and the 146th Division had expanded its presence in the western portion of southern Lebanon, the IDF reported.
Tanks and engineering vehicles have accompanied ground forces into these areas, it said.
Overall, the IDF indicated that its expansion in southern Lebanon was to deter the possibility of a Hezbollah invasion and not to carry out a large-scale incursion as it did in September 2024.
According to the IDF, Hezbollah could fall apart without Iranian training and guidance, which it will have less of now that Iran’s regime is fighting for survival.
In addition, the IDF said Hezbollah would be significantly harmed by losing access to Iranian funds, which were almost its sole source of support since the war started, all of which will harm it also with its Shi’ite constituency.
Collectively, the IDF said all of these factors could finally lead to the Lebanese military disarming Hezbollah, although the terrorist organization still has power sources, so this remains an unpredictable question.
So far, Hezbollah has not used its arsenal of thousands or more rockets, the IDF said.
Furthermore, the IDF credited the Lebanese military for having tried to stop Hezbollah from advancing south toward Israel.
Most of Hezbollah’s 2,000 Radwan Force commandos did not travel south toward Israel but stayed in Beirut for safety, the IDF said, adding that a small number of Radwan forces did.