Israeli researchers develop simulator for coronavirus exit strategy
The simulator is still in the development phase, but it has so far managed to complete the process of modeling both personal and demographic isolation policies.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSWEDES ENJOY themselves at an outdoor restaurant amid the coronavirus outbreak, in Stockholm on April 20(photo credit: REUTERS)
Researchers from the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology and the Civic Cabinet project are working together to develop an economy-focused simulator aimed at helping decision-makers implement a successful exit strategy for the coronavirus lockdown.Developed by a team led by researchers from Technion's Applied Mathematics Program Profs. Nir Gavish and Omri Barak – alongside former Israeli Center for Disease Control director Prof. Tami Shohat; Civic Cabinet project head Dr. Gal Alon; and Leehe Friedman, lecturer and director of the Honors Track in Strategy and Decision Making at IDC Herzliya’s Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy – the simulator is designed to have a user-friendly interface linking policies and cost indices in both short and long term.Currently, the simulator is being tested by various bodies and has received support from within the government.“Various plans for releasing the lockdown were recently presented to the public, some of which even clash, but the mathematical models on which they were based were not presented,” Gavish said in a statement.“Sharing information about these tools and the data on which they are based will make it possible to conduct a pragmatic discussion on the exit strategies and will help the scientific community contribute to the decision-making process.”“One of our principal values is transparency,” Barak explained.“Transparency means genuinely involving the public – the simulator will be available to everyone who wants to use it, and this way the public will be able to understand why certain decisions are made rather than others. This will enhance public trust, which we believe is almost as important a resource as hospital beds. Trust based on transparency will boost compliance with guidelines and will thereby be beneficial to all of us.”The creation of the simulator was born from Gavish's Introduction to Applied Mathematics course at the Technion.“I always bring a test case to the course and work on it with the students. This semester, inevitably, I talked about models for the spread of epidemics and infections,” Gavish explained.“While preparing for the course, I started a blog where I write about this subject, and the blog led me to Dr. Gal Alon, head of the Civic Cabinet project, and to Leehe Friedman, the project’s professional director.”The simulator is still in the development phase, but it has so far managed to complete the process of modeling both personal and demographic isolation policies. However, the data accumulated over the next two weeks regarding the impact of opening schools and businesses will be added. This will allow users to evaluate the possible consequences of different policies regarding lockdowns, isolating age groups, school reopenings, resuming air travel and maintaining protective gear and social distancing measures.“Even when it is completed, the simulator will not replace decision making and will not provide unequivocal operational answers,” Barak explained.“The simulator will not supply comprehensive answers to all the questions, but it will allow the decision makers to evaluate the different options – guidelines, bans, etc. – and assess them according to their expected consequences. We hope and expect that many professionals will use the simulator, thereby helping to improve it, as well as enhancing their decision-making process.”
