US President Donald Trump is widely admired in Israel for achieving what no other leader could: bringing home Gaza hostages and imposing a ceasefire on what seemed to be an endless war.
Now it appears the self-appointed head of the new Board of Peace may be about to challenge the odds again, this time with a planned plunge into the waters of the Nile. In January, Trump formally notified Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi that the US is renewing efforts to resolve the longstanding dispute between Egypt, joined by Sudan, on the one hand, and Ethiopia on the other, over the longest river in the world.
The most noteworthy aspect of the planned mediation is that the US is firmly on Egypt’s side, as it had been in past US mediation, which Ethiopia broke off in 2020. This means that to make a Trumpian “deal,” the president’s instinct may be to try to use further coercion against Ethiopia – a policy that did not work when economic pressure was applied under his first administration.
Trump is anxious to cement the already close relations he enjoys with al-Sisi, given Cairo’s crucial role in the US’s showcase of foreign policy venture: the shaping of a new Gaza. One way of doing this is to ask Cairo for help with the Nile in response to Ethiopia’s inauguration of its massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in September. Cairo regards Ethiopia’s dam functioning without a legal agreement, regulations, and guarantee of its water supply as an existential threat.
This issue has been a source of tension since the idea of building a dam on the Nile tributary – the Blue Nile – first began stirring in Addis Ababa in the 1960s. In 2011, Ethiopia started building the dam, disregarding Egypt’s objections.
Water and power
The stakes are higher for both sides after Ethiopia inaugurated the GERD in a patriotic ceremony in September 2025 with air force flyovers, aimed to stoke pride and project power in Africa. Ethiopia saw it as the most significant endeavor in its modern history, generating electricity to lift its population out of poverty and its economy forward to growth and development. This worried Egypt, as it relies on the Nile for more than 90% of its water supply.
With the dam now operational and officially launched, Ethiopia can turn down the tap and, during a sustained drought, devastate the most populous country in the Arab world.
“Without water, there is no Egypt, no civilization, no pyramids. It’s a matter of life and death,” Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said during a visit to Kenya recently. Sudan, which is also concerned, backs Egypt’s stance.
But Ethiopia sees this as an infringement on its sovereignty and an Egyptian effort to seize water it rightfully owns, based on outdated agreements rooted in the colonial era. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali’s government views the dam, which was almost exclusively financed by Ethiopia and its low-income citizens, who donated what they could afford, as a key aspect of its legitimacy at home.
“There are few issues on which Ethiopians are united, but it seems to me that the overwhelming majority support the GERD and are proud of the achievement,” Martin Plaut, senior research fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London, told The Jerusalem Report. “I have seen no discussion by members of the opposition to come to a different settlement with Egypt.”
Moreover, a return to an all-out war in Tigray – fears which have intensified recently – would make Ethiopia even less flexible about any concessions on the dam, according to Areig Elhag, content editor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
“Any potential return to war, whether in Tigray or other internal fronts, could push the Ethiopian leadership towards greater rigidity on the dam to reinforce internal cohesion and deflect attention from domestic crises, reducing negotiating flexibility and complicating the path to a resolution,” Elhag told the Report.
Regional faultlines
The tensions in the Horn of Africa, where Israel has interests in thwarting the Houthis and cultivating influence, are escalating as Egypt and Ethiopia come down on opposite sides of key flashpoints.
These include the horrific civil war in Sudan, where Israel’s ally, the United Arab Emirates, according to a recent Reuters report, is joining Ethiopia in training the Rapid Support Forces militia, who were accused last week by a UN team of perpetrating “genocidal acts” in Darfur. Egypt supports the other side in the conflict – the Sudan Armed Forces – which stands accused of carrying out war crimes.
Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, as well as its intensification of relations with Ethiopia, including the inclusion of Israeli weapons producers during a visit to Addis Ababa last March by Foreign Minister Gidon Sa’ar, has also raised concern in Cairo. The weapons producers were referred to in an interview published in Makor Rishon on June 3, 2025, with Ambassador Avraham Neguise, who said: “We have common challenges and common enemies.”
While Ethiopia was notably silent about Israel’s Somaliland move, Egypt has led opposition to it as a violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Further ratcheting up tensions is that landlocked Ethiopia is pursuing an expansionist foreign policy approach, insisting it must regain access to the Red Sea that it lost in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence. Abiy terms his country a “prisoner of geography.”
As he chaired the African Union summit in February, Abiy highlighted both the GERD and sea access in his opening address while stressing how successful Ethiopia is, pointing to a projected economic growth rate of 10.2%. His message was: now is a time for Ethiopian pride and leadership in Africa.
“Every river we manage, every city we design, and every digital platform we deploy must generate resilience, opportunity, and dignity,” he said.
With the Horn of Africa already boiling, resolving the Nile dispute seems more critical than ever. Even with an overcrowded international agenda, the matter is of priority.
To give talks a chance of succeeding, Elhag believes that the US should offer Ethiopia incentives this time, “guaranteeing Ethiopia access to ports via Somalia, plus development financing for electricity grids in exchange for water understandings benefiting Egypt and Sudan.”
Diplomacy or leverage
But the key question remains: what is Washington’s point of departure – is it to be a genuine mediator or to simply back Egypt because it is a key ally needed in Gaza and elsewhere?
Trump’s statements point to the latter. “My team and I understand the deep significance of the Nile River to Egypt and its people, and I want to achieve an outcome that assures the water needs of Egypt, the Republic of Sudan, and Ethiopia long into the future,.” Trump wrote to Sisi in January.
“The US affirms that no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile and disadvantage its neighbors in the process,” he added.
Still, it would be a mistake to make predictions about Trump. He could use more coercion against Ethiopia, switch sides, or just wash his hands of the Nile and move on to a different deal.
As for Israel, it would be a mistake to get involved or even say anything about the Nile issue, warns Bruce Maddy-Weitzman, professor emeritus of Middle Eastern and African history at Tel Aviv University.
“Israel has important interests in both countries. The overriding interest is not to get entangled in the dispute and not to be seen as tilting towards one side or the other,” he said. “Israel certainly has an interest in there not being a deterioration and a slide to armed conflict. That is something that is not in the interest of anyone interested in regional stability.”
The Foreign Affairs Ministry did not respond to a request about Israel’s position.■