Protests in Iran came to a head between January 8 and January 19, when over a million people joined the demonstrations.
But the regime’s subsequent crackdown, likely killing at least 5,000 protesters and arresting and wounding tens of thousands more, has likely capped the capability of the demonstrations to topple Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei unless US President Donald Trump orders an attack.
What will Trump do?
Even for the notoriously spontaneous-acting and whimsical US president, his policy zigzags on the Islamic Republic over the last month have been dizzying.
When the protests started in Iran, Trump took his standard stand-offish, classic “America first” position of staying out of foreign conflicts.
However, he started to shift gears after some days of protests, toying with the idea of getting involved, and then, after the successful January 3 American abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, he got more confidence and showed even more interest.
Still, during the critical January 8-9 days, Trump was not ready to get involved.
Only as reports of the mass killings grew within the media did Trump accelerate his potential intervention, until on Wednesday, January 14, he posted, “Help is on the way,” almost ordering a series of strikes.
Eventually, Trump called off the attack. There were murmurous reasons as to why, such as he was not sure enough about what to attack, America was not fully ready to defend its Middle East bases, although it had carried out some rushed evacuations, and the US military lacked its full resources, like the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier.
Also, there were objections against the attack from Arab countries and threats from them that they would not allow US aircraft to fly through their airspace to strike Iran, and there was Israeli opposition, because Jerusalem wanted more US air defense in place in Israel in case of an Iranian retaliation.
Around a week after Trump blinked, the USS Abraham Lincoln has been slowly making its way to the region from Asia and is expected to arrive in the next several days.
That fact, and Trump’s latest statement that Khamenei must be removed as Iran’s leader, suggests he may be back in attack mode, but is still willing to give Iran an exit ramp that Tehran is trying to take by allegedly killing fewer protesters, carrying out killings less in the public eye so as to avoid provoking Trump, and gradually restoring Internet usage in the country.
Did Trump miss his moment?
But it is possible that Trump has missed his moment.
If the crackdown of January 8-9 left protesters demoralized, or too many of them dead, wounded, or arrested to make a quick comeback, then even an American attack may not move the dial much on replacing the regime.
In that case, the most Trump could do would be to start playing a long game of keeping American military units in the area as a threat against the regime should it crack down again, and to try to encourage protesters to come out once more with a more concrete promise of protection.
Trump’s options remain: 1) A symbolic strike; 2) A strike against the regime’s oppressive powers; 3) A strike against ballistic missiles and remaining nuclear assets; 4) A cyber attack, or 5) Creating no-fly zones or other conditions to allow Iranian provinces to gain autonomy where national ethnic minorities are the majority of the population.
A symbolic strike could cater to a limited number of sites or individuals, showing them that Trump took some action, while possibly also seeking nuclear or ballistic missile negotiation concessions, but not genuinely trying to topple the regime.
Next, a strike against the regime’s oppressive powers could focus on the IRGC, the Basij, and potentially even top Iranian officials who might be viewed as the least pragmatic and hardest to deal with. This could include Khamenei, as well as others.
If the US targets ballistic missiles and remaining nuclear assets, it will solve more of Israel and the West’s problems and weaken Tehran’s ability to retaliate going forward.
This would both allow each side an off-ramp and empower Trump to observe the impact of the first wave of attacks before deciding his next move.
As for a cyberattack, it would not topple the regime, but could boost Iranian protesters’ ability to grow their movement by reducing the regime’s ability to crack down.
Finally, helping select Iranian provinces break off from the Islamic Republic could free millions of ethnic minorities and destabilize the regime by showing it cannot control all of its territory, but would not necessarily bring the regime close to falling in the short term.
What Trump will do if he decides to attack is far from clear. Whether he will succeed in toppling the regime also remains a big question.
What is becoming crystal clear is that without Trump attacking, Iran’s regime is likely to survive yet another round of protests, and the world will have missed another opportunity to free the Iranian people and rid the planet of one of the most oppressive regimes in existence.